Antonio Gracias

So it's been in a pretty – it's not a tight range, but it's been in that range for the last couple months.

What we're looking for is the market to get to a tipping point where you say, okay, we don't have complete information, but we're reasonably assured that this thing is going to get done.

What you're going to see is oil prices go down and then stay down.

They're probably going to bounce around a little bit, but once they go down below $90 per barrel, then go early 80s or low 80s, and then if they keep going into the 70s, that'll be the signal that this thing is actually happening.

So right now it's sort of like, okay, it could possibly happen.

The probability is not zero.

Somewhere around there.

We've been as low as 83.80.

That was what you're talking about on April 17th.

That's the closing price on April 17th.

Then it bounced right back higher.

Now, there's some other factors to consider, including what ends up happening after the war, how much damage has been done to oil supply, which might push oil prices back up.

But for the oil market to tell you that we believe this thing is getting done, we need to see low 80s, if not high 70s, and then not just a bounce for a day or two in those levels.

We need to see oil prices drop down and stay there.

They need to stick there.

It means gasoline prices.

I mean, prices are sticky, especially when you get further down the supply chain.

57 December was the low.

The thing is that President Trump has something really special because sometimes you will see that he picks not the obvious candidate.

So this is part of his likability and the weight he carries.