Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
All of these have sufficiently large revenue streams and access to capital that they can move independently and will be able to leverage their
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
their connections within the system, both at the central level and the local government level where they get a lot of their support to do their own thing.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
So, yeah, it will be – yeah, you will not have a national monopoly solution to this.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
That almost never occurs in China.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
I think one of their key advantages would have been- Because you think the fragmentation becomes an obstacle.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
Right.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
So the ability to concentrate your limited compute resources in one thing instead of scattered around.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
Yeah, no, I think that's a fair point, right?
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
And then, so that then comes back to how fast can they solve the chip problem domestically?
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
Yeah.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
Because if they can solve that really fast, then that constraint goes away.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
I think that really gets to the heart of a lot of stuff.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
And I don't have a great answer to that, right?
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
Because fundamentally, what you're saying is that there needs to be a communication system, a network of interactions between two highly competitive zones, the US and China, basically, where they have to...
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
you know, be able to operate with some degree of trust, right?
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
And I think the problem that we face in trying to analyze this is a lot of the analogies that you might reach for, you know, break down at some point.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
So you brought up the red telephone, which basically is a reference to the line of communication that the U.S.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
and Soviet Union had during the Cold War, where the threat that you were trying to avert was nuclear holocaust, basically.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
You know, and
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
In some ways, I think that's an apt analogy, and we kind of need to think broadly along those terms.