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Arthur Kroeber

👤 Person
1260 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

And so in my ideal world, you would have a lot more Chinese investment in the United States, but it would be very carefully regulated.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

In the same way that China very carefully regulates the direct investments by foreign companies in its economy, they have very strict rules about data localization, et cetera, et cetera.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

So I think that could be achieved.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

I think it will be very, very difficult in the current political environment.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

And then just in terms of sort of the grand bargain that you suggest is China is very interested in not being pigeonholed.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

They didn't want to be pigeonholed in low-value-added manufacturing.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

They wanted to do the high-tech stuff.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

Now they're doing that.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

They don't want to be pigeonholed in manufacturing.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

They want all of technology, including AI.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

So I don't think that any strategy –

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

which is premised on the idea that China should accept arbitrary limits on what it can do, is viable.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

Because would we accept that?

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

Absolutely not.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

And so why should we expect them to accept something that we would consider an absurd and completely unreasonable infringement on our sovereignty?

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

It just doesn't work that way.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

So if you go back to the early 1990s,

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

China recognized that pretty much every other country that had gotten rich had done so in large part by building up an automotive industry that then served as a mechanism for creating innovations in other sectors.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

You look at the U.S.,

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

You look at Germany, you look at Japan, you look even at Korea, which is very successful.