Arvid Lundmark
speaker
98 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2024
last heard Sep 2024
Arvid Lundmark’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Yeah. I mean, the thing I'm just actually quite worried about is sort of the world where, I mean, so Anthropic has this responsible scaling policy and so we're, we're on like the low, low ASLs, which is the Anthropic security level or whatever, of like, of the models. But as we get to like, quote unquote, ASL three, ASL four, whatever models, which are sort of very powerful, but,
For mostly reasonable security reasons, you would want to monitor all the prompts. But I think that's reasonable and understandable where everyone is coming from. But Matt, it'd be really horrible if all the world's information is monitored that heavily. It's way too centralized. It's like this really fine line you're walking where On the one side, you don't want the models to go rogue.
On the other side, it's humans. I don't know if I trust all the world's information to pass through three model providers.
To be clear, we have ideas. We just need to try and get something incredibly useful before we put it out there.
Whoever prompted it. I'm actually surprisingly curious what a good bet for when AI will get the Fields Medal will be.
I don't know what Amon's bet here is.
Fields Medal. Oh, Fields Medal level. Fields Medal comes first, I think.
No, sure. Like, I don't even know if I don't need to do.
I think that's probably more likely. Like, it's probably much more likely that it'll get there. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, I think it goes to, like, I don't know, like, BSD, which is a bird's-wing-turned-diode conjecture, or, like, Riemann iPods, or any one of these, like, hard, hard math problems that are just, like, actually really hard.
It's sort of unclear what the path to get even a solution looks like. Like, we don't even know what a path looks like, let alone...
I mean, I'd be very happy. I'd be very happy. But I don't know if I, I think 2028, 2030. What feels metal? Feels metal. All right.
And raw intelligence.
I mean, isn't the answer like really simple. You just, you just try to get as much compute as possible. Like, like at the end of the day, all you need to buy is the GPUs. And then the researchers can find, find all the, all like they can sort of, you know, you can tune whether you want to pre-train a big model or a small model. Like,
I'm more privy to Arvid's belief that we're sort of idea limited, but there's always... But if you have a lot of compute, you can run a lot of experiments.
I mean, I think if you see a clear path to improvement, you should always sort of take the low-hanging fruit first, right? And I think probably OpenAI and all the other labs did the right thing to pick off the low-hanging fruit, where the low-hanging fruit is like sort of... You could scale up to a GPT 4.25 scale and you just keep scaling and things keep getting better.
There's no point of experimenting with new ideas when everything is working. And you should sort of bang on and try to get as much juice out of it as possible. And then maybe when you really need new ideas for... I think if you're spending $10 trillion, you probably want to spend some... Then actually re-evaluate your ideas. Probably your idea limited at that point.
that person in the team loves to curse a tab more than anybody else.
It's sort of higher bandwidth. The communication to the computer just becomes higher and higher bandwidth as opposed to just typing is much lower bandwidth than communicating intent.
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