Arvind Narayanan

And AI over time is learning to do it better, right? Or write code or whatever it is. On the other hand... Predicting what's going to happen in the future, no one knows. The universe doesn't know. It doesn't matter how much data you can throw at it. What we're seeing is that these technologies are not really getting better. They haven't got better in decades.

And it should be common sense that we can't really predict the future, or at least not with anything close to perfect accuracy. And yet a lot of companies are telling us to suspend our common sense because AI, right? And that's what we're trying to push back on.

And it should be common sense that we can't really predict the future, or at least not with anything close to perfect accuracy. And yet a lot of companies are telling us to suspend our common sense because AI, right? And that's what we're trying to push back on.

And it should be common sense that we can't really predict the future, or at least not with anything close to perfect accuracy. And yet a lot of companies are telling us to suspend our common sense because AI, right? And that's what we're trying to push back on.

we're not going to have too many more cycles, possibly zero more cycles of a model that's almost an order of magnitude bigger in terms of the number of parameters than what came before and thereby more powerful. And I think a reason for that is data becoming a bottleneck. These models are already trained on essentially all of the data that companies can get their hands on.

we're not going to have too many more cycles, possibly zero more cycles of a model that's almost an order of magnitude bigger in terms of the number of parameters than what came before and thereby more powerful. And I think a reason for that is data becoming a bottleneck. These models are already trained on essentially all of the data that companies can get their hands on.

we're not going to have too many more cycles, possibly zero more cycles of a model that's almost an order of magnitude bigger in terms of the number of parameters than what came before and thereby more powerful. And I think a reason for that is data becoming a bottleneck. These models are already trained on essentially all of the data that companies can get their hands on.

So while data is becoming a bottleneck, I think more compute still helps, but maybe not as much as it used to.

So while data is becoming a bottleneck, I think more compute still helps, but maybe not as much as it used to.

So while data is becoming a bottleneck, I think more compute still helps, but maybe not as much as it used to.

I'm super excited for this conversation.

I'm super excited for this conversation.

I'm super excited for this conversation.

Sure. So, I'm a professor of computer science, and I would say I do three things. One is technical AI research, and another is understanding the societal effects of AI, and the third is advising policymakers.

Sure. So, I'm a professor of computer science, and I would say I do three things. One is technical AI research, and another is understanding the societal effects of AI, and the third is advising policymakers.

Sure. So, I'm a professor of computer science, and I would say I do three things. One is technical AI research, and another is understanding the societal effects of AI, and the third is advising policymakers.

So I spent years of my time on this. I really believed that decentralization could have tremendous societal impacts. How is this going to make society better? It was not the money angle. But by around 2018, I had started to get really disillusioned. And that was because of a couple of main things.

So I spent years of my time on this. I really believed that decentralization could have tremendous societal impacts. How is this going to make society better? It was not the money angle. But by around 2018, I had started to get really disillusioned. And that was because of a couple of main things.

So I spent years of my time on this. I really believed that decentralization could have tremendous societal impacts. How is this going to make society better? It was not the money angle. But by around 2018, I had started to get really disillusioned. And that was because of a couple of main things.

One is, in a lot of cases where I had thought crypto or blockchain was going to be the solution, I realized that that was not the case. While there is potential for crypto to help the world's unbanked, the tech is not the real bottleneck there. And the other part of it was just a philosophical aspect of this community.