Austan Goolsbee
👤 SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
That's the only knock.
And I think the combination of
One, we had the epic collapse of the economy in COVID, and it did not turn into a financial crisis.
Fair.
Number two, we had bank failure, Silicon Valley Bank, et cetera, after the Fed started raising rates quite significantly, and that didn't turn into a financial crisis or even a credit crunch.
And in 2023, going into 2024, inflation fell as much as it's ever fallen in a single year and there was no recession.
Each of those three things, many smart people said was impossible.
There was, in 2023, people were making fun of the idea that inflation could go down without there being a recession.
Larry Summers, you saw, said there will be an intense recession for five consecutive years before inflation will come down.
All three of those, any one of those would be a pretty strong accomplishment.
And then you add navigating through political pressures that are unlike any in modern memory.
That seems like a pretty compelling combination to me.
Look, I don't dispute that.
All I'll say is,
He wasn't the only one making the forecast that inflation was going to be transitory.
Right, right.
And when they decided to pivot, because I want to say again, I wasn't there.
I didn't do that.
But, look, I agreed with the professional forecasters and the markets were thinking that, as I was, I thought inflation would be –
Temporary because I thought a lot of it was coming from a wrecked supply chain and that the supply chain would heal quicker than it did.