Austan Goolsbee

So I don't think that the adoption of AI has been...

big enough to explain that number completely.

So I think there actually might be even some more running room to go with the productivity.

Yeah, I would say in my head in 23 and 24, since I've been on the Fed, inflation has never gone away as a central focus.

When the labor market is deteriorating, it comes back in a...

in a major way, but I'm a little more concerned about inflation right now because I think the job market is pretty steady.

I think growth is pretty steady.

I think there's some promising stuff in the inflation reports, but there's also some warning signs.

As I say, I'm not hawkish about rates.

I'm pretty optimistic that we can get rates down further, multiple cuts in 2026, as long as we see the progress on inflation that forecasters have been forecasting, that it's supposed to start coming down.

And I just want us to see some progress on that front and not get ahead of ourselves.

That's exactly what we don't want.

So what goes wrong?

A lot of things can go wrong.

In this case, what I want to make sure is not going wrong is that we need inflation not to be persistent.

When the part of inflation that has come from tariffs is supposed to go away, it's supposed to be transitory.

And when you see things like the forecast say inflation is going to peak out and then start falling by the end of 2025.

and then that moves the goalpost, well, maybe it'll be the first quarter of 26, and now they're saying, well, maybe it will be the second quarter of 26.

That's not a great sign.

We need to see, we should see, especially on the good side,