Austan Goolsbee

Historically, that tends to show up as they're trying to build a little precautionary buffer so the savings rate would start to rise.

That'd be a thing to watch out for.

All of our inner economists are getting a little bit of a warm glow.

Productivity growth is what makes us rich.

Incomes can go up.

Wages can grow faster without inflation if productivity growth is going to remain high like this.

So I don't think that the adoption of AI has been...

big enough to explain that number completely.

So I think there actually might be even some more running room to go with the productivity.

Yeah, I would say in my head in 23 and 24, since I've been on the Fed, inflation has never gone away as a central focus.

When the labor market is deteriorating, it comes back in a...

in a major way, but I'm a little more concerned about inflation right now because I think the job market is pretty steady.

I think growth is pretty steady.

I think there's some promising stuff in the inflation reports, but there's also some warning signs.

As I say, I'm not hawkish about rates.

I'm pretty optimistic that we can get rates down further, multiple cuts in 2026, as long as we see the progress on inflation that forecasters have been forecasting, that it's supposed to start coming down.

And I just want us to see some progress on that front and not get ahead of ourselves.

That's exactly what we don't want.

So what goes wrong?

A lot of things can go wrong.