Aya Kantorovich
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
Look, I think, without a doubt, the last three weeks have been painful.
We've seen 1.5x times higher volatility in the last three weeks than we've seen in 2025 total.
And a lot of that has to do with a number of things.
One, there's implications outside of just macro, which is more global and geopolitical.
And we're seeing a lot of bit of that.
We're also seeing some decoupling into the weekend.
where we are seeing sell-offs into the weekend and then buybacks back into Monday, as you referenced earlier.
And then last, we're seeing rotations back into macro.
And so, for example, sometimes people have to sell off their risk assets in order to reposition into those macro assets.
And I think that's what we're seeing a little bit here as well.
Yeah, so look, I think more broadly, Bitcoin operates in four year cycles and we're seeing that 2025 is actually more similar to a 2021 or 22 in comparison to a 2020, 23 and 24.
And what's tough is, you know, in those years, we really saw strong December especially.
And, you know, you have the post halving liquidity surge, you had recovery from FTX and ETF optimism.
And then in 24, you saw the ETF inflows coming in, in size.
And so we're actually, we've seen this cycle before.
We've also seen historically this year, a lot of very long-term holders take some profits off the table and we have seen some patients.
And so I think you're seeing some of that
profit taking into year end.
We're going to continue to see that.
But it really does make Q1 look very attractive as we do close out on that four-year cycle.