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Azeem Azhar

👤 Speaker
5487 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Everybody Thinks AI Is a Bubble. What If They’re Wrong?

Now, they may argue, well, the GPUs make money and we're paid back within two years, which is what it seems to be the case.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Everybody Thinks AI Is a Bubble. What If They’re Wrong?

And they still have some useful life in 6.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Everybody Thinks AI Is a Bubble. What If They’re Wrong?

But it feels like it's a bit of a thin argument.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Everybody Thinks AI Is a Bubble. What If They’re Wrong?

And this is one area where I think we could...

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Everybody Thinks AI Is a Bubble. What If They’re Wrong?

Ask for, hope for, but we won't get better rules around how GPUs should get depreciated, the kind of tax incentives companies should get because they are effectively operational expenses and greater transparency.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Everybody Thinks AI Is a Bubble. What If They’re Wrong?

Somebody sent me an email about this and they said that...

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Everybody Thinks AI Is a Bubble. What If They’re Wrong?

In China, the accounting rules are such that computer chips are effectively depreciated over a three year maximum five year period.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Everybody Thinks AI Is a Bubble. What If They’re Wrong?

So I think this is a you know, this is one of those ugly pimples of this picture that we should just stare at and say this could turn into a problem.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Everybody Thinks AI Is a Bubble. What If They’re Wrong?

Well, I mean, it is worrying, but it's just not where other things were.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Everybody Thinks AI Is a Bubble. What If They’re Wrong?

I mean, in the case of the dot-com, we were...

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Everybody Thinks AI Is a Bubble. What If They’re Wrong?

an order of magnitude practically away from that in terms of the capital that had gone in and the revenues that were being generated.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Everybody Thinks AI Is a Bubble. What If They’re Wrong?

And the question is really how long can you sustain yourself at that point?

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Everybody Thinks AI Is a Bubble. What If They’re Wrong?

The thing to note here is that

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Everybody Thinks AI Is a Bubble. What If They’re Wrong?

We had no-gen AI revenues three years ago, and our estimates and the calculations that we've done are quite conservative.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Everybody Thinks AI Is a Bubble. What If They’re Wrong?

We've come in at about $60 billion for 2025.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Everybody Thinks AI Is a Bubble. What If They’re Wrong?

One of the big investment banks has suggested it's closer to $153 billion for 2025.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Everybody Thinks AI Is a Bubble. What If They’re Wrong?

In truth, it's probably somewhere in between there.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Everybody Thinks AI Is a Bubble. What If They’re Wrong?

So we're quite conservative.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Everybody Thinks AI Is a Bubble. What If They’re Wrong?

And I would add to that, Derek, that that $60 billion is just a rough measure to cover the capital expenditure.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Everybody Thinks AI Is a Bubble. What If They’re Wrong?

It doesn't involve margin.