Azeem Azhar
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
The dot-com is a great example of this.
Some of the dot-com leaders were trading at a PE over 600.
I mean, it's crazy to say that.
If you look today, the top large tech names, and these are the ones most exposed to AI through their data centers or their models...
They're trading at a PE of around 38.
It's elevated, but it's very far from dot-com territory.
Their earnings are strong.
Their cash generation is strong.
Their order books are strong.
Their backlogs are strong.
And revenue momentum is really, really high.
So for me, this valuation level gauge still sits in the green.
Another gauge that's important to track is the quality of capital that is supporting this CapEx.
I mean, simply put, you want great experienced investors or you want the companies themselves to be funding this expansion.
So you need to look at the resilience of the funding sources across the stack.
Is this internal cash versus external debt?
Who is providing that debt?
Is it coming from established players, from established markets?
Are there complicated structures that might obfuscate risk while expanding access into those funding flows?
Weak capital structures amplify drawdowns and credit squeezes can force really disorderly unwinds.