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Azeem Azhar

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
5487 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Are we in an AI bubble? (these are the 5 warning signs)

The dot-com is a great example of this.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Are we in an AI bubble? (these are the 5 warning signs)

Some of the dot-com leaders were trading at a PE over 600.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Are we in an AI bubble? (these are the 5 warning signs)

I mean, it's crazy to say that.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Are we in an AI bubble? (these are the 5 warning signs)

If you look today, the top large tech names, and these are the ones most exposed to AI through their data centers or their models...

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Are we in an AI bubble? (these are the 5 warning signs)

They're trading at a PE of around 38.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Are we in an AI bubble? (these are the 5 warning signs)

It's elevated, but it's very far from dot-com territory.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Are we in an AI bubble? (these are the 5 warning signs)

Their earnings are strong.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Are we in an AI bubble? (these are the 5 warning signs)

Their cash generation is strong.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Are we in an AI bubble? (these are the 5 warning signs)

Their order books are strong.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Are we in an AI bubble? (these are the 5 warning signs)

Their backlogs are strong.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Are we in an AI bubble? (these are the 5 warning signs)

And revenue momentum is really, really high.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Are we in an AI bubble? (these are the 5 warning signs)

So for me, this valuation level gauge still sits in the green.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Are we in an AI bubble? (these are the 5 warning signs)

Another gauge that's important to track is the quality of capital that is supporting this CapEx.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Are we in an AI bubble? (these are the 5 warning signs)

I mean, simply put, you want great experienced investors or you want the companies themselves to be funding this expansion.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Are we in an AI bubble? (these are the 5 warning signs)

So you need to look at the resilience of the funding sources across the stack.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Are we in an AI bubble? (these are the 5 warning signs)

Is this internal cash versus external debt?

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Are we in an AI bubble? (these are the 5 warning signs)

Who is providing that debt?

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Are we in an AI bubble? (these are the 5 warning signs)

Is it coming from established players, from established markets?

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Are we in an AI bubble? (these are the 5 warning signs)

Are there complicated structures that might obfuscate risk while expanding access into those funding flows?

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Are we in an AI bubble? (these are the 5 warning signs)

Weak capital structures amplify drawdowns and credit squeezes can force really disorderly unwinds.