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Azeem Azhar

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
6838 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

I mean, there's not a new technology and a new complexity that a lawyer doesn't love because you need to construct new contracts and there's new case law.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

So even as these tools get better, the world may be getting more complicated and certainly for the coming years or more, it might create more opportunities, not close them down.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

I mean, the truth is we can't be sure.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

I just say that at these moments with the exponential age, which is so disorienting, so surprising, you have to be a bit open-minded and imagine counterfactuals.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

Against all of this, this market change, traditional capital markets really struggle to fund this.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

That's why many of these firms are backed by venture capital in the early days.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

But the appetite for change now is so great that a lot of this funding is happening in public markets.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

And so we get to this sort of odd world where a company like Nvidia is trading at a forward...

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

price-earnings ratio of about 27.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

Well, it's a bit spicy, but it's not dot-com levels.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

That was Yahoo at 1,200.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

But more interestingly, it has a ratio called PEG, which is price-earnings growth, of about 0.7.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

And the rule of thumb is that under one, you've got a company that's undervalued.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

Now, NVIDIA has a $500 billion portfolio.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

order backlog.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

So this whole thing is painting a picture of a little bit of confusion, maybe not a bubble, more of a utility that can't build power plants fast enough.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

And so we see this extreme dispersion in the markets, that persistent bubble bust anxiety.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

And I think what it comes down to is fundamentally

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

that the traditional capital markets are not well suited for dealing with this degree of change, uncertainty, and speed.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

The return profile of AI as this general purpose technology, as an invention of a method of invention, as an exponential technology is really orthogonal to the returns profile that capital markets look for.