Azeem Azhar

When we look at Gen AI today, we are seeing even the very big companies like Anthropic and OpenAI growing at 80%, 100%, 200% per annum and looking at very fast growth rate into 2026.

When we look at a cohort of big Gen AI startups that are not yet public and much smaller than OpenAI and Anthropic, we count about $18 to $20 billion of revenues in 2025, substantially above last year.

And some of these companies are growing at 4%, 500%, 600%, 700% per annum.

So on a conservative path, I think Gen AI could easily reach $100 billion in revenues by 2026, possibly even more.

Enterprises are really early in their adoption, so too are consumers.

And despite that, new data centers are running at a very high utilization as they come online.

The gauge that measures revenue trajectory is definitely in the green.

So this gauge looks at how far asset prices are running ahead of earnings.

Let's use a simple proxy price to earnings ratios and some other measures.

Extreme multiples can only persist if earnings outrun gravity.

Overheating is a classic bubble tell of too many investors chasing a story, not fundamentals.

The dot-com is a great example of this.

Some of the dot-com leaders were trading at a PE over 600.

I mean, it's crazy to say that.

If you look today, the top large tech names, and these are the ones most exposed to AI through their data centers or their models...

They're trading at a PE of around 38.

It's elevated, but it's very far from dot-com territory.

Their earnings are strong.

Their cash generation is strong.

Their order books are strong.