Azeem Azhar
π€ SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
And when I looked a bit deeper, many of those few dozen companies were connected to the infrastructure technologies of the time, like the car or electricity or computing.
So there is this sense that when you are in a technology transition, that value will accrue disproportionately.
And I think we're to certain sectors, and we're starting to see that in the fact that the Magnificent Seven is driving the bulk of America's stock market returns.
So perhaps there is this disruption premium, this sort of wager that you're not really after 17% or 20%.
You're after the chance of something that's much, much higher.
I'm not even sure that any of this depends on AGI, artificial general intelligence.
Long-term listeners and readers will know that I have lots of problems with the way that term is conceptualized and thrown about.
I don't think it's a
particularly useful definition or a helpful one, but lets us play with it for the time being, whatever AGI means to you.
I don't think that any of this is dependent on super capable AI systems that can do thousands of hours of work without anyone supervising them, even though that's what the
evaluation seem to suggest they'll be able to do within 5, 10, 15, 20 years.
I actually think that disruption premium could exist with the capabilities of the technology has today.
So we had a couple of questions come in.
One is, do you foresee open AI revenue coming mainly from corporate clients or users?
It's a really great question.
I mean, today, most of it is coming from end users, consumers, and there have been deals done in
the UAE and in India that make it widely available or will to those populations.
OpenAI's API revenue, that is the enterprise revenue or a big subset of it, is actually apparently, according to a research note from Barclays, one of the banks, in a similar range to that of Anthropic, which of course is somewhat smaller.
So the way I think about this is that it's very hard to serve two masters.
That is the enterprise and the consumer.