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Azeem Azhar

πŸ‘€ Speaker
6819 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

And when I looked a bit deeper, many of those few dozen companies were connected to the infrastructure technologies of the time, like the car or electricity or computing.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

So there is this sense that when you are in a technology transition, that value will accrue disproportionately.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

And I think we're to certain sectors, and we're starting to see that in the fact that the Magnificent Seven is driving the bulk of America's stock market returns.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

So perhaps there is this disruption premium, this sort of wager that you're not really after 17% or 20%.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

You're after the chance of something that's much, much higher.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

I'm not even sure that any of this depends on AGI, artificial general intelligence.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

Long-term listeners and readers will know that I have lots of problems with the way that term is conceptualized and thrown about.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

I don't think it's a

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

particularly useful definition or a helpful one, but lets us play with it for the time being, whatever AGI means to you.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

I don't think that any of this is dependent on super capable AI systems that can do thousands of hours of work without anyone supervising them, even though that's what the

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

evaluation seem to suggest they'll be able to do within 5, 10, 15, 20 years.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

I actually think that disruption premium could exist with the capabilities of the technology has today.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

So we had a couple of questions come in.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

One is, do you foresee open AI revenue coming mainly from corporate clients or users?

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

It's a really great question.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

I mean, today, most of it is coming from end users, consumers, and there have been deals done in

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

the UAE and in India that make it widely available or will to those populations.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

OpenAI's API revenue, that is the enterprise revenue or a big subset of it, is actually apparently, according to a research note from Barclays, one of the banks, in a similar range to that of Anthropic, which of course is somewhat smaller.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

So the way I think about this is that it's very hard to serve two masters.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

That is the enterprise and the consumer.