Azeem Azhar

Of course, markets can't always grow at that speed, but I don't really see the speed, you know, materially slowing down.

The third of my predictions was that bots would out-talk humans.

So I'd made the point that about more than half of web traffic was bot-based on the sort of pre-LLM internet.

Bots outnumber humans.

In fact, Matthew Prince, the CEO of Cloudflare, made a point that LLM bots are incredibly hungry web surfers.

So they surf the web about 90 times more each page than Google does for every human they send to the page.

So that bot traffic is quite greedy.

But the test I was really thinking about was the point at which

LLMs generate more natural language text, whether it's in English or French or Farsi or Mandarin, than humans do.

I can't remember if I've published this in the newsletter yet.

I've certainly spoken about it in a number of my speeches.

But by our internal models, we reckon that at some point this summer, LLM-generated natural human text

by volume of words or tokens will exceed that of humans.

So we will get to that crossover point, which I think is going to be pretty significant.

So I think I was right with that prediction as well.

Waymo would overtake Uber in San Francisco by the end of the year.

They'd seen tenfold growth in 2024, and they're bigger than Lyft.

We're only halfway through the year, so they obviously haven't overtaken Uber at this point.

But I do think that by market share, there is still a pretty decent chance that by December, there will be more rides on Waymo by revenue than on Ubers.

And the other thing that we've seen in the market has been Waymo cascading out to other cities.