Azeem Azhar

So the strategic leverage of petro-states is really, really diminishing and the marginal value is going to the electron.

So finally, two minutes on the bubble.

We held our nerve at the end of 2025 and the mood turned really sour by late October, early November.

And

It was not showing up in our data.

We're tracking thousands of different things every day.

And we could see narrative changing, but we couldn't see the fundamentals changing.

And of course, as you start the end of the year, the beginning of this year, the analyst starting to say that, well, still in an investment boom, not in bubble cycle territory just yet, maybe towards the end of the year, maybe into 27, you should check the framework out at

boom or bubble.ai and also tell us what else you'd like to see there.

When we run forward, when do we think there could be some real pain?

We struggle to see real bubble top risk before third quarter this year, maybe fourth quarter this year.

But again, we update our forecasts regularly and we might review them, bring them forward or do something else.

My midpoint estimate is actually much later than that.

The bear case requires lots of things to align.

It requires enterprise adoption to not to show up by the mid half of this year, that Microsoft doesn't kind of turn around, that's loss of momentum, that OpenAI really, really struggles, that there's some kind of deep debt default shock, and that there becomes a visible data center construction overhang.

I think if all of those things happen together, and I mean together, there might be a difficulty in the second half of this year.

But you just have to go back and look at the demand signals.

One of my favorites, I read this on Onyx, was a single developer who consumed 100 billion tokens in 39 days.

Or if you look at what's happening in memory, I mean, memory, HBM memory, which is what's needed for these AI factories is sold out for the whole year for 2026 from Hynix and from Micron.

Prices won't drop for a couple of years and the spot prices on GPUs