Azeem Azhar

really preeminent independent research organization tracking some of the trends behind AI.

You've probably seen their work on scaling laws and compute trends.

So we worked with their team to dig into the actual margins of frontier AI and the results are really, really interesting.

So whether or not you've had a chance to read our research yet, and you really should have done, this conversation will give you a really clear picture of where things stand and where they're heading.

I've asked financial journalist Matt Robinson from AI Street, it's another Substack newsletter, to moderate this discussion and really put us on the spot.

Jaime Sevilla, the founder of Epoch AI is here, and Hanna Petrovic from my team, she led the research on the exponential view side.

She's also no stranger to large numbers.

She has a doctorate in astrophysics.

So what I say, well, is that roughly right for Hanna?

Is it within a few orders of magnitude?

Often, yes.

Matt, I'm handing the stage over to you.

The floor is yours.

Hannah, why don't you just, I know that you dug into this in such detail and I don't want to speak ahead of your expertise to Matt's question.

this is a kind of complicated exercise.

And one of the things that comes out from this is this question of that short model life.

And the family that we looked at was only really the preeminent family for a few months.

Now, we know that

Enterprises don't change the API they're using the day a new one comes out.

There's always a bit of a lag.