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Azeem Azhar

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
6838 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

And I think that once that realization moves into Main Street, which it will in the next two years, or parts of Main Street, we will just see the usage grow and grow.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

There's something that the market has done, which reflects the work that we did, which is that if you look at the open AI stack of affiliated public companies, so the oracles and so on, they have really underperformed relative to the Google anthropic stack of affiliated public companies.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

And there's been a divergence since, I think it was really when Sam talked about needing a trillion dollars or something, which he may have done last summer.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

I found it really helpful that we had gone and done this x-ray of this company because it helped me see what I think some of the choices are.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

So the first thing I would say is there's clearly a path to success that emerges for OpenAI based on the work that we did.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

One of the big drags is this 20% Microsoft cut they have to pay.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

So they did this deal early on in order to get distribution and compute.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

Actually, I think it was years ago, right before ChatGPT, where Microsoft took 20% of the sort of top line revenue.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

And that drag does get in the way quite a lot of like an independent, successful business.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

And that's going to be a commercial negotiation, as we've seen between Microsoft and OpenAI.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

It's unlikely that Microsoft will, you know, shoot the prize pet on that journey.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

And I think what I was able to therefore see was certain of the levers that they have to

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

control on that journey.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

As Jaime says, they're going to need a lot of money to get there.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

I think the other thing, just as a, you know, as a contrast was we had often written about

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

how OpenAI was trying to capture a lot of different fronts at the same time.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

So it was trying to capture the sovereign national government front.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

They were very early with their large compute infrastructure commitments through Stargate.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

They wanted to get the enterprise.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

They wanted to get universities.