Azeem Azhar

that it felt to me like it's a recipe for an economy-wide staircase implementation.

Rather than a smooth curve, the smooth exponential curves that I love so much, but more a lumpy, punctuated deployment because each step...

is dependent on a bunch of it depends issues that might relate to a firm or an industry or a sector or regulated jobs, protected jobs, powerful classes of work.

And if that's the case, some will hold out for longer.

It might shape the way that deployment actually happens.

Perhaps it's going to be

at the same time a bit slower than some people might imagine, but also, you know, jerkier as we kind of hit each part of the staircase.

It's super important.

We think back to the typewriter.

We're going back to the 1890s, 1920s, an awful lot, right?

But, you know, it was 25 years for the typewriter to make its way through.

And I think there was some other work by economics historians saying that companies, with the exception of the startups like Ford, didn't fully transition to electricity until one generation of managers retired, right?

And a new generation emerged.

And I guess,

What we see from other parts of history is that it's often about diffusion rather than direct innovation that we start to see broad-based benefits.

But of course, an anthropic Dario has said, it's all about a data center of Nobel Prize winners that we'll be able to deliver in a couple of years.

And one of the observations I would make, and respond how you like, I think most people I know would really struggle

to get the most out of Claude Opus 4.1, which you've just about to turn off because it's like, you know, a model that's a few months old, let alone 4.5.

And that perhaps the thing that turns it depends to we can do it, it is about a particular class of

skills or confidence or attitude that may cluster quite a lot in Silicon Valley, but is much, much less profuse in other parts of the world.