Azeem Azhar

And, well, that does feel like it's heading towards that moment of bubbledom, if that's the right word.

But the other side of that is...

even these startups are growing like absolute topsy.

We've just heard that Cursor, which makes a tool to automate coding, has reached a few hundred million dollars of revenue and this company is only three years old.

invested in an email tool that uses AI to help you answer your emails.

And I remember being really cross with the founders when I looked at their pitch, where they said, we'll get to $10 million in revenues in the first year.

And I was saying, that's just ridiculous.

That's not going to happen.

And this is the thing that I don't like about your pitch.

They got to 17 million in revenue after about nine months and they're growing faster than ever before because customers want to pay for this.

And we shouldn't forget that by the end of this year, ChatGPT, that weird experiment that spilled into our lives three years ago,

we'll be making about $10 billion annualized at the end of this year.

And again, that's real money.

And that's money that's been made faster than Facebook got to that milestone or TikTok got to that milestone.

So of course, you get these moments of exuberance.

But they're also examples where real customers are spending real money on products that they really like.

Well, I've looked historically at 18 bubble instances back to the canals in the 1790s and where I could get the data.

What I found was that the threshold where it gets really sticky is around 2% of GDP and really problematic at 3%, which is where the railroads got to in the 1870s.

And the reason seems to be, and it's particularly true in a big and complex economy like America's, that it's a big and complex economy and it can absorb that sort of level.

But I'd also add that