Barry Whyte

However, a number of experienced Tally people are calling the seat for Ennis based on the transfer patterns they are seeing.

Meanwhile, they say the most closely watched transfers as the day goes on will be those of Gerry Hutch.

But I do not think there will be enough of these to pull the Sinn Féin candidate ahead of the Social Democrats.

So with 100% of tallies complete, Pat, Daniel Ennis looks to be in poor position to take the Dublin central by-election.

Good morning, Pat.

Yeah, look, it's still early here at the Crown Centre in the RDS in Simmons Court, but the tallies are already beginning to give us a clear picture of how this Dublin Central by-election is shaping up.

And it's worth saying, Pat, there's a very strong tally operation in place here this morning with party teams working together across the Crown floor.

So these figures are expected to be quite accurate.

That's normally the case when all the parties work together.

So, with almost three quarters of the boxes now opened and tallied, the early tallies show Janice Boylan of Sinn Féin on 19.8%, Daniel Ennis of the Sock Dems on 18.3%, independent candidate Gerry Hutch, 13.5%, Maliki Steenson on 10.8%, Janet Horner of the Green Party on 10.6%, Phineas Ray McAdam on 9.2%, Mona Canavan of People for Profit on 7.1%,

Labour's Ruth O'Dea on 5%, Fianna Fáil's John Stevens on 3.1% and Ian Noel Smith of Aintoo on 1.9%.

So Pat, there are a few clear trends here emerging already.

Daniel Ennis is performing particularly strongly in the north inner city and at this stage looks to have the momentum behind him.

Another notable development is the stronger than expected showing from both the Green Party's Janet Horner.

and People Before Profits own a Canavon, their votes would be expected to transfer predominantly to other left-leaning candidates, so particularly Daniel Ennis and Janice Boylan.

So while there's still a long way to go in this count, it is increasingly looking like a two-candidate race between the Social Democrats and Sinn Féin, with Daniel Ennis at this point appearing to have the edge, because I think the transfers of the Green Party and People Before Profits will likely favour him more.

It depends who you speak to, Pat.

But I know that the Dublin Bay South by-election a few years ago had a valid poll of around 29,000.

And that went on to 9pm at night.

The valid poll here is expected to be around 23,000.