Beau of The Fifth Column

The five most we'll be looking at are Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Those are states that Trump won, but have a Democratic governor.

Traditional political math says that means the Republican candidate in those states will have a better chance.

Under Trump, who famously scrambles traditional political math, it'll be a referendum on both his policies and the Republican primary process.

The more MAGA the Republican nominee, the less of a chance they'll probably have.

Georgia is one to truly watch as well.

It's got some unique dynamics.

Republican Governor Brian Kemp is facing term limits.

The Republican side of the aisle has a relatively crowded primary.

And the Democratic primary has Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former Atlanta mayor, and former Lieutenant Governor Jeff Duncan.

Duncan was once a Republican and might be able to pull a lot of unexpected support.

Kansas is one that could have some surprises.

Right now, the governor is a Democrat, Laura Kelly, but she's term limited.

The Kansas City Star recently had one titled, Kansas, Missouri farmers went big for Trump.

His tariffs are gutting them.

In Wisconsin, the incredibly popular Democratic Governor Tony Evers isn't running again.

The Democratic primary is pretty crowded and even features a Democrat socialist candidate.

These races will help shape the national discussion, and they'll end up influencing the House races as the final candidates are picked through the primaries.

Republicans will look at them as another rubber stamp for Trump, and the Democratic Party will see them as a chance to add an extra layer of defense against Trump's executive overreach.

Nevada, too.