Behnam Ben Taleblu

It's hard to think of any Israeli prime minister that would take a missile barrage from the world's foremost state sponsor of terrorism and do nothing in response.

Great to be with you.

Thanks for having me.

Well, it's something of a hot potato dance.

The Trump administration has kind of entered the Middle East, restraining both adversary and ally, calling for a return to ceasefire.

The Islamic Republic, meanwhile, has been looking to use escalation, being against America's partners in the Persian Gulf.

or more recently Israel, in a way to restrain the Trump administration.

And the challenge here is how best the Trump administration can one, stand with its partners like Israel, two, deter the regime from continuing to engage in these attacks while allegedly there is a ceasefire, and three, be able to actually get what it wants, which is some sort of a larger diplomatic settlement that first and foremost opens up the Strait of Hormuz.

And the real X factor here to know if Iran was successful in flipping the script on the Trump administration

is if the thing that brought the regime to use force, the Israeli response of fire against Hezbollah, continues in the same way or not.

So after the 24 hours and more of missile exchanges in the Middle East, don't look for diplomacy as the telltale sign that things have been successful.

Look for a more freer hand or a more restrained hand to know if things are looking up or down in the region by Israel.

Well, the White House is still walking this fine line, this tight rope, talking about a ceasefire, de-escalation, and de-confliction.

And the challenge here really is, this is an administration that has pioneered maximum pressure.

This is an administration that has really created a very successful maritime blockade against the Islamic Republic's ports.

And so while the Trump administration has been talking about keeping the blockade, the rest of their rhetoric and even some of their actions point to

potential risk aversion more than risk tolerance, which may end up underwriting the next Iranian cycle of escalation, be it against America's Persian Gulf partners or Israel.

Well, this is a regime that unfortunately has a drastically different social contract with its own people than us or other members of the international community or global economy in good standing.

So while these facts do matter, they're not the facts that in the very short term are governing the national security decision-making of the Islamic Republic.

So the art of the deal for this president, and really any president, is to be able to put this regime to the choice, to make those facts matter.