Behnam Ben Taleblu

Yes, they are afraid of being killed, but anger as in they harbor a hostility against their own government and they have drawn such a sharp line against their own government.

And many Iranians have lost so much due to Iranian government policy.

Many still believe that they have nothing left to lose.

And that might be changing the dynamics and the risk tolerance and even the way protests will look and will function in Iran in the future.

And it's important for the West to know that because there's a lot of variables that could militate against that.

Obviously, no one will go into the street in the middle of a war.

That's basically a suicide mission.

The biggest city, Tehran, which has anywhere from 11 million to 15 million, depending on the time of day, has not largely been vacated, but there has been several million who've migrated to the north, to the other provinces and villages and more rural areas to avoid the conflict.

That's an internal migration thing during war.

We saw part of that last time as well during the 12-day war.

But suffice to say, they will come back and they will come back and it's about the fog of war dissipating.

The fog of war will dissipate for the, you know, hardened national security deep state and they will really see what happens when you go up against a tier one regional military and really a global superpower.

The supporters of the regime are going to have to try to spin that narrative and see how, you know, the emperor not having any clothes is still, you know, how can they take a victory lap there?

But then for those dissidents, those large swath of dissatisfied Iranians, they too will see the damage done and, you know, perhaps they're resolved and their spine will be stiffened.

The challenge is, of course, that they will be going out into the street unarmed again.

uh against a regime that again i fear is too weak to win a war abroad but strong enough to kill at home and this their behavior during this entire month tells you everything because this regime while it's been fighting again these two conventional superpowers has still been taking time to intimidate its population uh to and especially to send thugs paramilitaries vigilantes into streets major urban centers at night wielding clubs and chains and

and chanting religious hymns in a bid to intimidate the population, to prevent them from coming out because the regime fear is one thing and I call that the horseshoe effect or the containment effect.

They are, I said the contagion effect.

They don't want foreign military pressure to beget domestic street pressure and they don't want domestic street pressure to beget foreign military pressure.

The more distance they put between these two things, the more fear they create between these two audiences,