Ben Carlson
👤 SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
And have them in your portfolio in some way.
And so that's the diversification piece is if you happen to miss out on a lot of these big winners, it's gonna be tough.
And the other thing is, obviously, he's looking at 100 years of data.
So a lot of these companies that ended up going under and not making it, you could have gotten fantastic returns for one, two, three, five, seven years before these companies petered out, right?
We're seeing now some huge brand name stocks, Nike and Disney and some of these really well-known companies
that are doing really poorly right now, but owning them historically could have given you fantastic returns, right?
So the timing of the ownership too, and sort of when you get in and get out, obviously that can matter too.
But my personal takeaway is just like casting a wide enough net to make sure that you own these winners and finding a strategy that sort of forces your hand to hold them and not give up on them.
Because it's easy to buy, I think it's easy to sell.
for an investment, right?
I think the holding is the hard part for a lot of people because no matter the company, no matter the index, no matter the asset class, you're going to have drawdowns eventually.
And then you question yourself, do I lean into the pain and buy more?
Do I sell it here and try to just recruit my losses elsewhere?
I think that's the hard part for people is just knowing when to get in, when to get out and when to like really hold still and not do anything.
I think that is a very intelligent-sounding argument that basically never works.
The hard part is, Peter Bernstein talked about this in his book Against the Gods.
I really leaned on him heavily for the ideas of mean reversion.
He said the hard part about mean reversion is when the mean is moving.
It's a moving target.
I think you can make the case that the valuation, especially for the U.S.