Ben Stiller

Well, we heard President Trump functionally acknowledge that recently when he talked about you may go to the store at Christmas, at the holidays, and the toys you want to buy may not be there. They may cost a lot more. There may be fewer presents under the tree this year. That is not the normal political messaging. Mm-mm.

Well, we heard President Trump functionally acknowledge that recently when he talked about you may go to the store at Christmas, at the holidays, and the toys you want to buy may not be there. They may cost a lot more. There may be fewer presents under the tree this year. That is not the normal political messaging. Mm-mm.

For most goods, we're going to be talking about higher prices rather than just lack of availability. But a huge percentage of our toys come from China. You could easily see a situation where some toys are simply not available or not available in nearly the numbers that we would expect this fall.

For most goods, we're going to be talking about higher prices rather than just lack of availability. But a huge percentage of our toys come from China. You could easily see a situation where some toys are simply not available or not available in nearly the numbers that we would expect this fall.

Yeah, so let's take a quick step back here about how we got here with housing. It was hard to buy a house before the pandemic, but then housing prices just soared during and immediately after the pandemic, right? Everybody rushing out to get more space. Interest rates were super low. Then all of a sudden we get inflation, interest rates soar. So that makes it even harder to buy a home.

Yeah, so let's take a quick step back here about how we got here with housing. It was hard to buy a house before the pandemic, but then housing prices just soared during and immediately after the pandemic, right? Everybody rushing out to get more space. Interest rates were super low. Then all of a sudden we get inflation, interest rates soar. So that makes it even harder to buy a home.

And the hope coming into this year was this would finally be the year that things sort of started to settle down a little bit and the housing market could start to get back to some kind of normal. That is just not what we're seeing. So, first of all, mortgage rates have not come down. They're still hanging out around 7%. That's pretty high. It's really high.

And the hope coming into this year was this would finally be the year that things sort of started to settle down a little bit and the housing market could start to get back to some kind of normal. That is just not what we're seeing. So, first of all, mortgage rates have not come down. They're still hanging out around 7%. That's pretty high. It's really high.

And there's no sign for exactly the reasons that you're talking about that they're going to come down significantly anytime soon, right? If tariffs drive up inflation, the Fed is going to have a hard time cutting interest rates. That's going to keep mortgage rates higher. Also, tariffs are going to directly hit the cost of buildings. We're talking about lumber that comes in from Canada.

And there's no sign for exactly the reasons that you're talking about that they're going to come down significantly anytime soon, right? If tariffs drive up inflation, the Fed is going to have a hard time cutting interest rates. That's going to keep mortgage rates higher. Also, tariffs are going to directly hit the cost of buildings. We're talking about lumber that comes in from Canada.

We're talking about appliances that come in from China. We're also talking about maybe less labor supply if we deport a lot of immigrant workers who work in construction. So there are a lot of reasons that the cost of building a home is going to be higher and therefore the supply of homes is going to be lower. And so it could be a really tough time to buy a home.

We're talking about appliances that come in from China. We're also talking about maybe less labor supply if we deport a lot of immigrant workers who work in construction. So there are a lot of reasons that the cost of building a home is going to be higher and therefore the supply of homes is going to be lower. And so it could be a really tough time to buy a home.

That down payment that Anna saved up may not go as far as she had been counting on.

That down payment that Anna saved up may not go as far as she had been counting on.

So I hear this a lot from people right now. And at first, it might sound a little surprising when I say, by some measures, the job market looks pretty good right now. The unemployment rate is low. We hear about some high-profile layoffs, but layoffs in the aggregate are still pretty infrequent. And so if you have a job right now, at least at this moment, it looks like things are kind of okay.

So I hear this a lot from people right now. And at first, it might sound a little surprising when I say, by some measures, the job market looks pretty good right now. The unemployment rate is low. We hear about some high-profile layoffs, but layoffs in the aggregate are still pretty infrequent. And so if you have a job right now, at least at this moment, it looks like things are kind of okay.

What we also know is that it's a hard time to be looking for a job. And I think that's what these listeners are getting at. So a lot of it has to do with this uncertainty that we're in right now. Companies are trying to figure out what's happening in the economy and where things are going. They're not in such bad shape that they're cutting jobs, but they're also very reluctant to hire.

What we also know is that it's a hard time to be looking for a job. And I think that's what these listeners are getting at. So a lot of it has to do with this uncertainty that we're in right now. Companies are trying to figure out what's happening in the economy and where things are going. They're not in such bad shape that they're cutting jobs, but they're also very reluctant to hire.

And so it's this sort of stagnant labor market where if you're trying to get that foot in the door or you're trying to get that next step up in your career, it could be really tough because all of these businesses are out there just saying, let's hold off and see where things are. We'll touch base again in a few months.

And so it's this sort of stagnant labor market where if you're trying to get that foot in the door or you're trying to get that next step up in your career, it could be really tough because all of these businesses are out there just saying, let's hold off and see where things are. We'll touch base again in a few months.