Ben Stiller

So I would say, first of all, I don't think a recession is inevitable. For one thing, these policies could be reversed again, right? We've already seen a lot of back and forth.

So I would say, first of all, I don't think a recession is inevitable. For one thing, these policies could be reversed again, right? We've already seen a lot of back and forth.

A deal could be reached with China. It's not clear where things will end up. It's not clear that these tariffs would inevitably lead to a recession on their own. I think they're clearly going to lead to higher prices. They're clearly going to lead to slower growth. But that doesn't necessarily translate into a full-blown recession.

A deal could be reached with China. It's not clear where things will end up. It's not clear that these tariffs would inevitably lead to a recession on their own. I think they're clearly going to lead to higher prices. They're clearly going to lead to slower growth. But that doesn't necessarily translate into a full-blown recession.

And most of the economists that I talk to say that if there is a recession, it has the potential to be a comparatively mild one. This isn't 2008 where we have this huge housing bubble that's then going to collapse. It's not a global pandemic in the same way. So there's some optimism for you. Now let me undermine it. I would say a couple of things.

And most of the economists that I talk to say that if there is a recession, it has the potential to be a comparatively mild one. This isn't 2008 where we have this huge housing bubble that's then going to collapse. It's not a global pandemic in the same way. So there's some optimism for you. Now let me undermine it. I would say a couple of things.

I mean, one, even a mild recession is really painful for a lot of people. If you lose your job, there can be long-term consequences from that. It also seems like there are some things about this potential recession or even potential slowdown that could be tougher than some in the past. This combination of higher prices and slower growth is a really tough combination to navigate.

I mean, one, even a mild recession is really painful for a lot of people. If you lose your job, there can be long-term consequences from that. It also seems like there are some things about this potential recession or even potential slowdown that could be tougher than some in the past. This combination of higher prices and slower growth is a really tough combination to navigate.

And it's also not clear that there's going to be a lot of help there. If you think back to 2008 and 2009 or you think back to the pandemic, we had enhanced unemployment benefits and we had checks that went out to people. Right. It's not clear that a lot of that help is going to be there this time around. And then there are the bigger risks that are hard to quantify and hard to be sure about.

And it's also not clear that there's going to be a lot of help there. If you think back to 2008 and 2009 or you think back to the pandemic, we had enhanced unemployment benefits and we had checks that went out to people. Right. It's not clear that a lot of that help is going to be there this time around. And then there are the bigger risks that are hard to quantify and hard to be sure about.

But, you know, we've seen some real turmoil in the financial markets over the past several weeks, fears of what's happening in the bond market, fears of what's happening with the dollar. But I think there are real questions that are being asked about sort of the long-term stability of the financial system, of the U.S. economy, the U.S. 's place in the global economy.

But, you know, we've seen some real turmoil in the financial markets over the past several weeks, fears of what's happening in the bond market, fears of what's happening with the dollar. But I think there are real questions that are being asked about sort of the long-term stability of the financial system, of the U.S. economy, the U.S. 's place in the global economy.

And it's hard to predict where that goes, but at a minimum, you've got to be concerned that we could be sowing the seeds of some much deeper long-run problems that could show up in unpredictable and potentially pretty disastrous ways down the road.

And it's hard to predict where that goes, but at a minimum, you've got to be concerned that we could be sowing the seeds of some much deeper long-run problems that could show up in unpredictable and potentially pretty disastrous ways down the road.

You know, if you look at what the president has done in his first months in office, he's picked fights not just with adversaries, but with allies. He's called into question fundamental alliances, military and economic. He has at least floated questions about Fed independence, about the sanctity of the treasury market. There are a lot of

You know, if you look at what the president has done in his first months in office, he's picked fights not just with adversaries, but with allies. He's called into question fundamental alliances, military and economic. He has at least floated questions about Fed independence, about the sanctity of the treasury market. There are a lot of

hard to pin down, but worrying questions that we're seeing are leading investors, they're leading leaders of other countries to start to think twice about the role that the U.S. is playing. And I know that this sort of sounds a little bit esoteric. I know that this sounds a little bit hard to pin down, and it is hard to pin down. I can't sit here and give you

hard to pin down, but worrying questions that we're seeing are leading investors, they're leading leaders of other countries to start to think twice about the role that the U.S. is playing. And I know that this sort of sounds a little bit esoteric. I know that this sounds a little bit hard to pin down, and it is hard to pin down. I can't sit here and give you

a super specific scenario about what this looks like. But the bedrock of the global financial system for decades now has been that the U.S. is the world's strongest and most solid economy, that it pays its debts, that it meets its obligations. And I don't want to say that that is no longer true, but we have certainly seen some cracks in the confidence in that.

a super specific scenario about what this looks like. But the bedrock of the global financial system for decades now has been that the U.S. is the world's strongest and most solid economy, that it pays its debts, that it meets its obligations. And I don't want to say that that is no longer true, but we have certainly seen some cracks in the confidence in that.