Ben Stiller

I was going to say, first of all, congratulations. You know, we normally think of tariffs as being mostly about higher prices, and they are for sure. But they can also be about the availability of goods. And when we talk about goods from China in particular... Right now, President Trump has imposed 145 percent tariffs on products from China. And you talk to some businesses.

I talked to a toy manufacturer recently who said at a certain point, 145, 150 is at a billion percent. It doesn't matter. I cannot pay that. And so there's certain things that just may not come in. Baby goods are a prime example of this. A ton of our strollers and cribs and other baby equipment comes from China. And a lot of that is not going to come.

I talked to a toy manufacturer recently who said at a certain point, 145, 150 is at a billion percent. It doesn't matter. I cannot pay that. And so there's certain things that just may not come in. Baby goods are a prime example of this. A ton of our strollers and cribs and other baby equipment comes from China. And a lot of that is not going to come.

Now, look, eventually, right, people will figure out workarounds. It's not like no crib will ever enter this country again. But, you know, babies famously come on a timeline, right? Sometimes ahead of time. Sarah can't presumably just say, you know, never mind, we'll get the crib sometime next year.

Now, look, eventually, right, people will figure out workarounds. It's not like no crib will ever enter this country again. But, you know, babies famously come on a timeline, right? Sometimes ahead of time. Sarah can't presumably just say, you know, never mind, we'll get the crib sometime next year.

And so this is a situation where really the idea of trying to get something now before the tariffs make it impossible to get at any price is something I think we're going to see a lot of people starting to think about.

And so this is a situation where really the idea of trying to get something now before the tariffs make it impossible to get at any price is something I think we're going to see a lot of people starting to think about.

Yeah, I mean, look, we saw in the pandemic how complicated supply chains are, how small disruptions can filter through in unexpected ways. Look, I don't think you need to rush out and buy a year's worth of socks right now, necessarily. But it's probably not a bad idea to buy a crib. You know, look, I'm cautious about giving specific advice to a specific person.

Yeah, I mean, look, we saw in the pandemic how complicated supply chains are, how small disruptions can filter through in unexpected ways. Look, I don't think you need to rush out and buy a year's worth of socks right now, necessarily. But it's probably not a bad idea to buy a crib. You know, look, I'm cautious about giving specific advice to a specific person.

But yeah, I don't think it's crazy to say I better place that order for the crib now, even though I'm not going to need it for a little bit.

But yeah, I don't think it's crazy to say I better place that order for the crib now, even though I'm not going to need it for a little bit.

Well, we heard President Trump functionally acknowledge that recently when he talked about you may go to the store at Christmas, at the holidays, and the toys you want to buy may not be there. They may cost a lot more. There may be fewer presents under the tree this year. That is not the normal political messaging. Mm-mm.

Well, we heard President Trump functionally acknowledge that recently when he talked about you may go to the store at Christmas, at the holidays, and the toys you want to buy may not be there. They may cost a lot more. There may be fewer presents under the tree this year. That is not the normal political messaging. Mm-mm.

For most goods, we're going to be talking about higher prices rather than just lack of availability. But a huge percentage of our toys come from China. You could easily see a situation where some toys are simply not available or not available in nearly the numbers that we would expect this fall.

For most goods, we're going to be talking about higher prices rather than just lack of availability. But a huge percentage of our toys come from China. You could easily see a situation where some toys are simply not available or not available in nearly the numbers that we would expect this fall.

Yeah, so let's take a quick step back here about how we got here with housing. It was hard to buy a house before the pandemic, but then housing prices just soared during and immediately after the pandemic, right? Everybody rushing out to get more space. Interest rates were super low. Then all of a sudden we get inflation, interest rates soar. So that makes it even harder to buy a home.

Yeah, so let's take a quick step back here about how we got here with housing. It was hard to buy a house before the pandemic, but then housing prices just soared during and immediately after the pandemic, right? Everybody rushing out to get more space. Interest rates were super low. Then all of a sudden we get inflation, interest rates soar. So that makes it even harder to buy a home.

And the hope coming into this year was this would finally be the year that things sort of started to settle down a little bit and the housing market could start to get back to some kind of normal. That is just not what we're seeing. So, first of all, mortgage rates have not come down. They're still hanging out around 7%. That's pretty high. It's really high.

And the hope coming into this year was this would finally be the year that things sort of started to settle down a little bit and the housing market could start to get back to some kind of normal. That is just not what we're seeing. So, first of all, mortgage rates have not come down. They're still hanging out around 7%. That's pretty high. It's really high.

And there's no sign for exactly the reasons that you're talking about that they're going to come down significantly anytime soon, right? If tariffs drive up inflation, the Fed is going to have a hard time cutting interest rates. That's going to keep mortgage rates higher. Also, tariffs are going to directly hit the cost of buildings. We're talking about lumber that comes in from Canada.