Benham Ben-Taliblu

I'm interested in what he did with the place where my ancestral family comes from.

Even what we're looking at today, the Islamic Republic does not have a supreme leader.

It does not have a commander-in-chief, but it's still continuing a multi-front missile and drone war against America, against Israel, and against many of its Arab neighbors.

Even just earlier, it attacked Turkey, which is a NATO-allied country.

So make no mistake, despite not being at the helm, the legacy of Ali Khamenei is felt very much across Iran's political institutions and military institutions.

You could say there is a vacuum, but the Islamic Republic is acting like it would be expected to act.

I mean, this is a regime that within hours after losing the commanding heights of the IRGC in the 12-day war last June also did something similar and instituted violence.

massive missile barrages against Israel.

So there is room at this point in time to have a more open debate as to how much of Iran's foreign and security policy was an 86-year-old theocrat who had not left the country since 1989 really being involved in on a day-to-day basis, especially as he was sheltered and especially as electronic communications with him were cut.

Well, I would say the most important person, the most important government entity and the most important institution in the country are as follows.

It's Ali Larijani, who is the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

He's by far, in my view at the moment, the most important national security decision maker who is still alive, who is still that link between command and control and political institutions and military institutions.

and also setting the general tone, tenor, and tempo of where the state will go.

The institution that he leads, the Supreme National Security Council, is the most important national security decision-making body in the country.

And then third, the most important institution writ large is the military, in particular the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

So for those who want to know where Iran will go or where Iran is headed,

as we have rumors that Khamenei's son is supposed to succeed him as supreme leader, as we have, you know, reports that there is this interim leadership council of the president of another cleric named Rafi and the head of the judiciary named Eje, as those three are, quote unquote, leading the country in a temporary leadership council.

In reality, the power structure that matters is the Supreme National Security Council, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Ali Larijani.

Well, unfortunately, given their cohesion, large swaths of the security services are loyal, as well as hardline political, military, and religious elites, as well as, you could assume, some but not all of their family members and network of friends and veterans.

Beyond that, in a country of about 91.5, 92 million, a back-of-the-envelope assessment, all anecdotal, not really empirical, is at max 20, 15 percent, which can still be a sizable number in a country that is that big.