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Benjamin Felix

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2389 total appearances
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The Rational Reminder Podcast
Episode 406: When Massive Private Companies Go Public

try your best to find a way to buy more open AI?

The Rational Reminder Podcast
Episode 406: When Massive Private Companies Go Public

Do you need to own more than what is represented by Microsoft?

The Rational Reminder Podcast
Episode 406: When Massive Private Companies Go Public

I mean, I don't know.

The Rational Reminder Podcast
Episode 406: When Massive Private Companies Go Public

I guess after the fact now, if you knew to do that a while ago, we can say that, hey, that would have made a lot of sense.

The Rational Reminder Podcast
Episode 406: When Massive Private Companies Go Public

But again, as I mentioned earlier, there's a ton of survivorship bias there.

The Rational Reminder Podcast
Episode 406: When Massive Private Companies Go Public

Go back in time 10 years, which private companies should we invest in?

The Rational Reminder Podcast
Episode 406: When Massive Private Companies Go Public

All right.

The Rational Reminder Podcast
Episode 406: When Massive Private Companies Go Public

So my wrap up here, yes, it is possible that these upcoming mega IPOs will affect market indices, especially if these companies

The Rational Reminder Podcast
Episode 406: When Massive Private Companies Go Public

end up being fast-tracked for inclusion.

The Rational Reminder Podcast
Episode 406: When Massive Private Companies Go Public

And then due to index fund mechanics, index funds will buy up IPO shares at any price if they're included in the index they're tracking, leading to adverse selection and potentially even making the problem worse for themselves because people know the index funds are going to be buying those shares.

The Rational Reminder Podcast
Episode 406: When Massive Private Companies Go Public

If you're an index fund investor, I think this is a really important point.

The Rational Reminder Podcast
Episode 406: When Massive Private Companies Go Public

This is a cost that you have been paying and still outperformed most everything.

The Rational Reminder Podcast
Episode 406: When Massive Private Companies Go Public

Maybe these cases, as you mentioned earlier, Dan, are a bit more extreme just because of the size of the companies, but this is it.

The Rational Reminder Podcast
Episode 406: When Massive Private Companies Go Public

This is part of the indexing lifestyle.

The Rational Reminder Podcast
Episode 406: When Massive Private Companies Go Public

You're deciding to accept what the public market has to offer, which includes investing in IPOs that sometimes have high prices.

The Rational Reminder Podcast
Episode 406: When Massive Private Companies Go Public

You can either accept that and carry on, which has been a very successful strategy.

The Rational Reminder Podcast
Episode 406: When Massive Private Companies Go Public

I suspect it will continue to be a very successful strategy in

The Rational Reminder Podcast
Episode 406: When Massive Private Companies Go Public

in the future.

The Rational Reminder Podcast
Episode 406: When Massive Private Companies Go Public

Or you can look at alternatives like dimensional funds or Avantis funds that we talked about, which have their different methodologies for avoiding IPO flops.

The Rational Reminder Podcast
Episode 406: When Massive Private Companies Go Public

And those are also low cost, broadly diversified, systematic funds.