Benjamin Todd

To get a better sense of your potential over the long term, you should try to look at your rate of improvement rather than just recent performance.

Your answers to steps 1 to 3 give you a starting point, but then you can modify that up or down depending on specific factors that could increase or decrease your chance of success.

The aim is to develop a model of what's needed for success.

You can try to do this by asking people in the field about what's most needed and trying to understand what causes people to succeed or not.

Then try to assess how you stack up on these predictors.

This is how good job interviews work.

They try to identify the traits most important for the job and then ask you about evidence that you've displayed those traits in the past.

5.

Does the job match your strengths?

One useful way to find your strengths is to look for activities that don't feel like work to you but do for most people.

We have an article with an evidence-driven process to assess your personal strengths.

6.

Do you feel excited about it?

Gut-level motivation isn't a reliable predictor of success.

But if you don't feel motivated, you probably won't be able to put in the effort you'd need to to perform well.

So a lack of excitement should definitely give you pause.

It might be worth exploring what precisely you find uninspiring.

Seven, will you enjoy it?

This matters even if you mainly care about social impact.

To stick with any career for long enough to make a difference, it'll need to be reasonably enjoyable and fit with the rest of your life.