Benoit Faucon
👤 SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
They don't want Iran to be able to attack its neighbors.
So they want Iran disabled and they want the Strait of Hormuz reopened.
Otherwise, they feel like it's going to really be a negotiation that effectively re-empower Iran and enable it to attack again.
The regime is kind of hankering down and closing ranks.
The fact they chose the closest replica to the father, which is the son, is significant in the idea that they basically...
So all the possible options that always existed in the regime, either obviously a more conciliatory stance to the West, especially in the nuclear program, political opening, economic opening, that's unlikely to happen.
He's a very conservative clerical figure.
His connections are more with the clerical nationalist group, which is very much in support of supporting insurgencies in the Middle East.
very conservative religious views in the country.
So what he says is a hard line stands going forward, no concession.
The appointment of Moshtaba Khamenei does signal the regime closing rank, but it does increase the risk for the regime of losing power.
The lack of opening, the lack of oxygen in a country where the majority oppose the regime, even though they don't have access to weapons or political power, makes it potentially more dangerous going forward because the regime's base is narrowed.
And even though they control the military...
there could be a potential breaking point.
So that risk has increased, even though in the short term, it looks like the regime is consolidating.
It relies on supporters as echo chambers, starting on servers rented by the supporters of the group.
And then from there, they disseminate on social media and a very large number of platforms, very often for a relatively short period of time.
After a few hours, it's taken down.