Bill Gates

Yeah, I think at first it was you can have it open source, but you don't get any of our services. Or you can take the whole thing and you take all of our services, but our services are great. And guess what? The Play Store is one of our services. So if you want all the apps, then you have to take all the other Google services too.

Yeah, I think at first it was you can have it open source, but you don't get any of our services. Or you can take the whole thing and you take all of our services, but our services are great. And guess what? The Play Store is one of our services. So if you want all the apps, then you have to take all the other Google services too.

Now, keep in mind, how does Google make money? They make money on search. So Google, from the moment they figured out, hey, we can run a, call it 2002, when Google's search business model was really hardened, and it was evident this will scale, it's ludicrously profitable, it's very high value per user, Google's going to be the number one at it,

Now, keep in mind, how does Google make money? They make money on search. So Google, from the moment they figured out, hey, we can run a, call it 2002, when Google's search business model was really hardened, and it was evident this will scale, it's ludicrously profitable, it's very high value per user, Google's going to be the number one at it,

It's almost like if you really thought about it, you could have figured out that Microsoft wouldn't win in mobile.

It's almost like if you really thought about it, you could have figured out that Microsoft wouldn't win in mobile.

It's a really circuitous path. But if step one is Google makes a ton of money on search, then step two is Google should try to get all the searches. So then step three is Google needs to have the front door to search. And so you have to count on Google being the actor that figures this all out.

It's a really circuitous path. But if step one is Google makes a ton of money on search, then step two is Google should try to get all the searches. So then step three is Google needs to have the front door to search. And so you have to count on Google being the actor that figures this all out.

Step four is Google figures out what the next platform is and makes sure that they are guaranteeing all the search volume comes to Google from them. So what do they do? They invent or buy a mobile operating system. What do they do after that? The next step, they give it away for free because, again, all they care about is all the search volume.

Step four is Google figures out what the next platform is and makes sure that they are guaranteeing all the search volume comes to Google from them. So what do they do? They invent or buy a mobile operating system. What do they do after that? The next step, they give it away for free because, again, all they care about is all the search volume.

And so therefore, unless Microsoft adopts Google's business model, they're immediately screwed.

And so therefore, unless Microsoft adopts Google's business model, they're immediately screwed.

Yeah. It's a little bit butterfly flaps its wingsy, but there is a direct line over a 10-year period from Google finds its web-based search business model and Microsoft cannot employ its traditional business model and win in mobile. Microsoft will lose in mobile. And there's some pivots in there.

Yeah. It's a little bit butterfly flaps its wingsy, but there is a direct line over a 10-year period from Google finds its web-based search business model and Microsoft cannot employ its traditional business model and win in mobile. Microsoft will lose in mobile. And there's some pivots in there.

I think the biggest moment when the door really shut is when Verizon freaked out after the Apple and AT&T deal and said, we need an answer. And they decided that answer was Droid. And they put like a gajillion dollars behind the Droid advertising campaign.

I think the biggest moment when the door really shut is when Verizon freaked out after the Apple and AT&T deal and said, we need an answer. And they decided that answer was Droid. And they put like a gajillion dollars behind the Droid advertising campaign.

Yeah. And so I think at that point, it was sort of a two-horse race. Microsoft probably could have figured out a way to get in before that, but it is all related to Google finding that orthogonal business model.

Yeah. And so I think at that point, it was sort of a two-horse race. Microsoft probably could have figured out a way to get in before that, but it is all related to Google finding that orthogonal business model.

And it would have taken a big culture shift at Microsoft to say, we're an advertising company.

And it would have taken a big culture shift at Microsoft to say, we're an advertising company.