Bill Gurley

last week had taken down their forecast for GDP growth, had taken up their forecast for inflation, had taken up their forecast for unemployment by the end of the year. So the economy, you know, most major economists are increasing their probability of recession. are slowing the rate of growth. And the question today was, was Liberation Day a clearing event? Does everybody have clarity now?

And I think your point you make is a great one. Even though they may have gotten an exemption or they may not have an exemption, the question is, can I count on this? And how long can I count on this? And can I really plan a year out based upon this? Or is this going to change yet again over the course of the year? And so...

And I think your point you make is a great one. Even though they may have gotten an exemption or they may not have an exemption, the question is, can I count on this? And how long can I count on this? And can I really plan a year out based upon this? Or is this going to change yet again over the course of the year? And so...

And I think your point you make is a great one. Even though they may have gotten an exemption or they may not have an exemption, the question is, can I count on this? And how long can I count on this? And can I really plan a year out based upon this? Or is this going to change yet again over the course of the year? And so...

Let me tell you two other cascading effects. I heard from one of the CEOs last week that four contracts with him had actually been canceled, right? Because they had like three European contracts canceled and one Asian contract canceled because the countries were so upset with America that they're going to do deals instead with European companies or whatever the case may be.

Let me tell you two other cascading effects. I heard from one of the CEOs last week that four contracts with him had actually been canceled, right? Because they had like three European contracts canceled and one Asian contract canceled because the countries were so upset with America that they're going to do deals instead with European companies or whatever the case may be.

Let me tell you two other cascading effects. I heard from one of the CEOs last week that four contracts with him had actually been canceled, right? Because they had like three European contracts canceled and one Asian contract canceled because the countries were so upset with America that they're going to do deals instead with European companies or whatever the case may be.

And then I saw a couple of tweets, Bill. One was that China and Korea and Japan were actually going to collaborate in a response to the US tariffs. And somebody said, we haven't seen the Koreans and the Japanese and the Chinese combined forces on anything since the Mongols caused them to get together. And so it is causing a lot of strange bedfellows. And I sent you,

And then I saw a couple of tweets, Bill. One was that China and Korea and Japan were actually going to collaborate in a response to the US tariffs. And somebody said, we haven't seen the Koreans and the Japanese and the Chinese combined forces on anything since the Mongols caused them to get together. And so it is causing a lot of strange bedfellows. And I sent you,

And then I saw a couple of tweets, Bill. One was that China and Korea and Japan were actually going to collaborate in a response to the US tariffs. And somebody said, we haven't seen the Koreans and the Japanese and the Chinese combined forces on anything since the Mongols caused them to get together. And so it is causing a lot of strange bedfellows. And I sent you,

The tweet where the Europeans, the president of Europe, the president Macron, they're all going to China and they want to talk about closer trade relationships with China. And you warned us about this.

The tweet where the Europeans, the president of Europe, the president Macron, they're all going to China and they want to talk about closer trade relationships with China. And you warned us about this.

The tweet where the Europeans, the president of Europe, the president Macron, they're all going to China and they want to talk about closer trade relationships with China. And you warned us about this.

Let me just maybe opine on that for a second. Like, where do I think we go from here? After hours with the NASDAQ down, peak to trough post-Trump at almost 18%, right? That's down a lot. A lot of names in the NASDAQ are down 40% or 50%. So we're starting to get some of that fear into the market. Somebody asked, and I said, at its very root, I do believe the president wants to do deals.

Let me just maybe opine on that for a second. Like, where do I think we go from here? After hours with the NASDAQ down, peak to trough post-Trump at almost 18%, right? That's down a lot. A lot of names in the NASDAQ are down 40% or 50%. So we're starting to get some of that fear into the market. Somebody asked, and I said, at its very root, I do believe the president wants to do deals.

Let me just maybe opine on that for a second. Like, where do I think we go from here? After hours with the NASDAQ down, peak to trough post-Trump at almost 18%, right? That's down a lot. A lot of names in the NASDAQ are down 40% or 50%. So we're starting to get some of that fear into the market. Somebody asked, and I said, at its very root, I do believe the president wants to do deals.

He believes in fairer trade. I think we're going to land the plane here closer to $300 or $400 billion in tariffs, not $600 or $700, and certainly not a trillion in tariffs, even though it feels today like it was bigger than that. And one of the things I think that's going to kind of force the president's hand, he talked at the press conference. He had a bunch of senators there and House members.

He believes in fairer trade. I think we're going to land the plane here closer to $300 or $400 billion in tariffs, not $600 or $700, and certainly not a trillion in tariffs, even though it feels today like it was bigger than that. And one of the things I think that's going to kind of force the president's hand, he talked at the press conference. He had a bunch of senators there and House members.

He believes in fairer trade. I think we're going to land the plane here closer to $300 or $400 billion in tariffs, not $600 or $700, and certainly not a trillion in tariffs, even though it feels today like it was bigger than that. And one of the things I think that's going to kind of force the president's hand, he talked at the press conference. He had a bunch of senators there and House members.

The senators and House members are hearing from their constituent CEOs that they don't like these tariffs. And remember, most important to the president, he wants to get this reconciliation package passed, which he calls a big, beautiful bill. He wants to get this thing passed, which puts in place no taxes on tips and the permanency of the tax cuts, which he passed in his first administration.