Bill Gurley

You're right. We just listened to the president talk. You know, and he came in on the larger end of this. I mean, there's no other way to slice it. There was a headline that hit right after the market closed from the Wall Street Journal, I believe, that it was 10% across the board. And the markets jumped up like 2.5%. And then as the presentation started unfolding, they started coming in.

People saw this chart that they presented on reciprocal tariffs, right, where they say tariffs on China going to 54%. Can you believe that? 34% on top of the 20% that already exists. And he starts going through this list. And the futures, the S&P futures, the NASDAQ futures start sinking. They had a 600 basis point fall. between where they initially jumped and where they ended up.

People saw this chart that they presented on reciprocal tariffs, right, where they say tariffs on China going to 54%. Can you believe that? 34% on top of the 20% that already exists. And he starts going through this list. And the futures, the S&P futures, the NASDAQ futures start sinking. They had a 600 basis point fall. between where they initially jumped and where they ended up.

People saw this chart that they presented on reciprocal tariffs, right, where they say tariffs on China going to 54%. Can you believe that? 34% on top of the 20% that already exists. And he starts going through this list. And the futures, the S&P futures, the NASDAQ futures start sinking. They had a 600 basis point fall. between where they initially jumped and where they ended up.

So the market is not liking this at all. And depending what index you were looking at, we were already down 8% to 15% on the year. Now, whatever comes in tomorrow will be on top of that. So that's the chart. That's kind of the initial reaction out of the market. We can break them down a little bit if you want. But that was the initial reaction.

So the market is not liking this at all. And depending what index you were looking at, we were already down 8% to 15% on the year. Now, whatever comes in tomorrow will be on top of that. So that's the chart. That's kind of the initial reaction out of the market. We can break them down a little bit if you want. But that was the initial reaction.

So the market is not liking this at all. And depending what index you were looking at, we were already down 8% to 15% on the year. Now, whatever comes in tomorrow will be on top of that. So that's the chart. That's kind of the initial reaction out of the market. We can break them down a little bit if you want. But that was the initial reaction.

Correct. I mean, they call them non-tariff trade barriers. This is everything from what they call currency manipulation to things like judicial actions that restrict free and fair trade of our products into their countries. And by the way, we know there are non-tariff trade barriers. So it's not totally surprising.

Correct. I mean, they call them non-tariff trade barriers. This is everything from what they call currency manipulation to things like judicial actions that restrict free and fair trade of our products into their countries. And by the way, we know there are non-tariff trade barriers. So it's not totally surprising.

Correct. I mean, they call them non-tariff trade barriers. This is everything from what they call currency manipulation to things like judicial actions that restrict free and fair trade of our products into their countries. And by the way, we know there are non-tariff trade barriers. So it's not totally surprising.

But if you and I were to do the math on these, you can kind of make those numbers whatever you want to make them. Correct. And so, you know, if I had to go through this, the tariffs largely break down into, let's call it three or four big buckets, right? There's the auto tariffs. That's largely on Mexico, Canada, and Germany. And the auto tariffs were imposed at 25%.

But if you and I were to do the math on these, you can kind of make those numbers whatever you want to make them. Correct. And so, you know, if I had to go through this, the tariffs largely break down into, let's call it three or four big buckets, right? There's the auto tariffs. That's largely on Mexico, Canada, and Germany. And the auto tariffs were imposed at 25%.

But if you and I were to do the math on these, you can kind of make those numbers whatever you want to make them. Correct. And so, you know, if I had to go through this, the tariffs largely break down into, let's call it three or four big buckets, right? There's the auto tariffs. That's largely on Mexico, Canada, and Germany. And the auto tariffs were imposed at 25%.

This, you know, in fact, he had 20 members of the UAW union. Worth noting. In the front row at the event, he invited, I think, the president of the UAW up on stage to make some comments. And he said, these people used to be Democrats. They're Republicans now. We're the only ones who fight for them. And by the way, this is really – he said, we won the state of Michigan because of this.

This, you know, in fact, he had 20 members of the UAW union. Worth noting. In the front row at the event, he invited, I think, the president of the UAW up on stage to make some comments. And he said, these people used to be Democrats. They're Republicans now. We're the only ones who fight for them. And by the way, this is really – he said, we won the state of Michigan because of this.

This, you know, in fact, he had 20 members of the UAW union. Worth noting. In the front row at the event, he invited, I think, the president of the UAW up on stage to make some comments. And he said, these people used to be Democrats. They're Republicans now. We're the only ones who fight for them. And by the way, this is really – he said, we won the state of Michigan because of this.

This is what I campaigned on. These are the promises we made, and we're delivering on the promises. It is striking to me that just politically, this is what Democrats were running on 20 years ago, and it just shows how much the political parties have changed. So this is a big tariff differential as it relates to autos.

This is what I campaigned on. These are the promises we made, and we're delivering on the promises. It is striking to me that just politically, this is what Democrats were running on 20 years ago, and it just shows how much the political parties have changed. So this is a big tariff differential as it relates to autos.

This is what I campaigned on. These are the promises we made, and we're delivering on the promises. It is striking to me that just politically, this is what Democrats were running on 20 years ago, and it just shows how much the political parties have changed. So this is a big tariff differential as it relates to autos.

Then he had the reciprocal tariffs, which are the ones that I outlined here, Bill. Remember, Trump is the negotiator-in-chief. This is the starting point. All these tariffs go into place, and we'll put these charts up on April 9th, country by country.