Bill Perkins

If they're right 55%, 60% of the time, they're right. Think about the casino's edge in blackjack. It could be 51. Yeah, 0.07 or 0.09 in blackjack. In craps, it's like 0.03. They're wrong a lot of the time. But ultimately, the law of large numbers, they make a bunch of money. But if your emotional calculus is different,

such that you need a greater being right ratio, then you're not going to make it because stress clouds your thinking and your judgment.

such that you need a greater being right ratio, then you're not going to make it because stress clouds your thinking and your judgment.

Well, the first thing I do is just try and break down like what are they actually afraid of? A lot of times when people say the bad thing is not as bad as they imagine it in their head. And a lot of times, quite frankly, it's really the fear of judgment. more than the actual thing. They find out that they can survive the potential negative financial hit.

Well, the first thing I do is just try and break down like what are they actually afraid of? A lot of times when people say the bad thing is not as bad as they imagine it in their head. And a lot of times, quite frankly, it's really the fear of judgment. more than the actual thing. They find out that they can survive the potential negative financial hit.

What they can't survive is, oh, my friends, my colleagues, my spouse, my mom, my dad, the shame, I got it wrong, the I told you so's, etc. There's a lot of that fear baked into, disguised as, I can't risk these dollars. I'm like, yeah, you can. That type of thing. Then the other thing is I'm trying to think is, Get them to focus. They always focus on the monetary costs of losing.

What they can't survive is, oh, my friends, my colleagues, my spouse, my mom, my dad, the shame, I got it wrong, the I told you so's, etc. There's a lot of that fear baked into, disguised as, I can't risk these dollars. I'm like, yeah, you can. That type of thing. Then the other thing is I'm trying to think is, Get them to focus. They always focus on the monetary costs of losing.

But what about the cost of inaction and the opportunity costs? And by talking about the opportunity costs, I get them to see the asymmetry of the risk. Maybe I have a greater tolerance for risk, but what I do is that I fear, you know, my fear is reversed. I fear missing out on the opportunity costs. I fear not getting the max. A lot of people fear running out of money. I fear wasting my life.

But what about the cost of inaction and the opportunity costs? And by talking about the opportunity costs, I get them to see the asymmetry of the risk. Maybe I have a greater tolerance for risk, but what I do is that I fear, you know, my fear is reversed. I fear missing out on the opportunity costs. I fear not getting the max. A lot of people fear running out of money. I fear wasting my life.

I am more worried about looking back and being like, shit, I wasted my only ride that I had than running out of money.

I am more worried about looking back and being like, shit, I wasted my only ride that I had than running out of money.

If I really love cigarettes, like love them, I'd smoke cigarettes. You know what I mean? If I really love skydiving all the time, I went twice, but it was diminishing returns. I go skydiving. It's what fulfills you. And so I'm a risk reward guy. Is the reward commensurate with the risk? Some people like to ride motorcycles. For me, it's not worth the risk.

If I really love cigarettes, like love them, I'd smoke cigarettes. You know what I mean? If I really love skydiving all the time, I went twice, but it was diminishing returns. I go skydiving. It's what fulfills you. And so I'm a risk reward guy. Is the reward commensurate with the risk? Some people like to ride motorcycles. For me, it's not worth the risk.

Like I have a physical risk tolerance around one in 10,000. If it's more dangerous than one in 10,000, the reward really has to be worth it for me to do it. And so that's the way I think. That helps me in this kind of like counterfactual regret minimization algorithm. So the algorithm of the book, the mental models in the book are right.

Like I have a physical risk tolerance around one in 10,000. If it's more dangerous than one in 10,000, the reward really has to be worth it for me to do it. And so that's the way I think. That helps me in this kind of like counterfactual regret minimization algorithm. So the algorithm of the book, the mental models in the book are right.

You know, when a chess computer plays you, it has a regret minimization algorithm. And what it wants to do is a solving to win. AlphaGo is solving to win the game. In the game of life, what I'm solving for, the regret minimization I'm solving for is net fulfillment. I want the highest score in net fulfillment. I don't want the highest money. I don't even want the highest health.

You know, when a chess computer plays you, it has a regret minimization algorithm. And what it wants to do is a solving to win. AlphaGo is solving to win the game. In the game of life, what I'm solving for, the regret minimization I'm solving for is net fulfillment. I want the highest score in net fulfillment. I don't want the highest money. I don't even want the highest health.

I'm like, I don't want to run three hours a day to be in the top 0.5%. Top 3% is great enough. I'll give up the tail end of my life. You know what I mean? And time, like how to optimize my time. Everything for me is like what I'm solving for in life, what this book is solving for for you is net fulfillment. It is relentless about net fulfillment.

I'm like, I don't want to run three hours a day to be in the top 0.5%. Top 3% is great enough. I'll give up the tail end of my life. You know what I mean? And time, like how to optimize my time. Everything for me is like what I'm solving for in life, what this book is solving for for you is net fulfillment. It is relentless about net fulfillment.

If that entails for you, your makeup, like taking those risks, going hella skiing, skydiving, riding motorcycles, then so be it. As long as you're off autopilot and you've thought it through, then that's fine.