Bill Perkins

And so it's kind of tied with zero. What do you want out of your life? Get off autopilot. What do you want out of life? What resources do you have? And how do we optimize? How do we get the most out of it?

And so it's kind of tied with zero. What do you want out of your life? Get off autopilot. What do you want out of life? What resources do you have? And how do we optimize? How do we get the most out of it?

Yeah. The majority of my wealth came from predicting the future. And that's generally the future of natural gas prices.

Yeah. The majority of my wealth came from predicting the future. And that's generally the future of natural gas prices.

The best traders I've seen have been pretty stoic about things. They think very robotically about expected outcome and they don't seem to be disturbed about negative outcomes as much as the average person.

The best traders I've seen have been pretty stoic about things. They think very robotically about expected outcome and they don't seem to be disturbed about negative outcomes as much as the average person.

If you place a bet and the payout is one in four, But the odds are 50-50. Half the time, you're going to get four times your money. And half the time, you're just going to lose one times your money. So that's positive expected outcome, right? You're going to make money. This is a great trade. But remember, 75% of the time, you're going to lose in this scenario. No, the payout.

If you place a bet and the payout is one in four, But the odds are 50-50. Half the time, you're going to get four times your money. And half the time, you're just going to lose one times your money. So that's positive expected outcome, right? You're going to make money. This is a great trade. But remember, 75% of the time, you're going to lose in this scenario. No, the payout.

Half the time, you're going to lose. Half the time, you're going to lose. The payout's one in four. So half the time, you're pissed. you're upset and a lot of people can't deal with that. They need four or five or seven positive events emotionally psychologically forever every negative event. In trading, that just doesn't exist.

Half the time, you're going to lose. Half the time, you're going to lose. The payout's one in four. So half the time, you're pissed. you're upset and a lot of people can't deal with that. They need four or five or seven positive events emotionally psychologically forever every negative event. In trading, that just doesn't exist.

If they're right 55%, 60% of the time, they're right. Think about the casino's edge in blackjack. It could be 51. Yeah, 0.07 or 0.09 in blackjack. In craps, it's like 0.03. They're wrong a lot of the time. But ultimately, the law of large numbers, they make a bunch of money. But if your emotional calculus is different,

If they're right 55%, 60% of the time, they're right. Think about the casino's edge in blackjack. It could be 51. Yeah, 0.07 or 0.09 in blackjack. In craps, it's like 0.03. They're wrong a lot of the time. But ultimately, the law of large numbers, they make a bunch of money. But if your emotional calculus is different,

such that you need a greater being right ratio, then you're not going to make it because stress clouds your thinking and your judgment.

such that you need a greater being right ratio, then you're not going to make it because stress clouds your thinking and your judgment.

Well, the first thing I do is just try and break down like what are they actually afraid of? A lot of times when people say the bad thing is not as bad as they imagine it in their head. And a lot of times, quite frankly, it's really the fear of judgment. more than the actual thing. They find out that they can survive the potential negative financial hit.

Well, the first thing I do is just try and break down like what are they actually afraid of? A lot of times when people say the bad thing is not as bad as they imagine it in their head. And a lot of times, quite frankly, it's really the fear of judgment. more than the actual thing. They find out that they can survive the potential negative financial hit.

What they can't survive is, oh, my friends, my colleagues, my spouse, my mom, my dad, the shame, I got it wrong, the I told you so's, etc. There's a lot of that fear baked into, disguised as, I can't risk these dollars. I'm like, yeah, you can. That type of thing. Then the other thing is I'm trying to think is, Get them to focus. They always focus on the monetary costs of losing.

What they can't survive is, oh, my friends, my colleagues, my spouse, my mom, my dad, the shame, I got it wrong, the I told you so's, etc. There's a lot of that fear baked into, disguised as, I can't risk these dollars. I'm like, yeah, you can. That type of thing. Then the other thing is I'm trying to think is, Get them to focus. They always focus on the monetary costs of losing.

But what about the cost of inaction and the opportunity costs? And by talking about the opportunity costs, I get them to see the asymmetry of the risk. Maybe I have a greater tolerance for risk, but what I do is that I fear, you know, my fear is reversed. I fear missing out on the opportunity costs. I fear not getting the max. A lot of people fear running out of money. I fear wasting my life.

But what about the cost of inaction and the opportunity costs? And by talking about the opportunity costs, I get them to see the asymmetry of the risk. Maybe I have a greater tolerance for risk, but what I do is that I fear, you know, my fear is reversed. I fear missing out on the opportunity costs. I fear not getting the max. A lot of people fear running out of money. I fear wasting my life.