Bob Michael

I would argue we still want disinflation, and hopefully there will be a point in time in the not-too-distant future

where wage growth and the trend in disinflation will normalize prices again.

But all of that still is a headwind to consumption, so businesses are very careful how much cost increases they push through now.

Well, I think you'd have to see the fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act hit and accelerate business investment and consumer spending.

You'd have to see a labor shortage resulting from that.

And you'd have to see a wage price spiral.

Maybe you'll see that in the second quarter.

But right now, the Fed threaded the needle.

Can't we just enjoy this into the holiday season?

Well, yes, but let's not forget that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act also has no taxes on tips, overtime, social security payments.

A lot of those are concentrated in the bottom couple quintiles of earners.

So there should be some relief coming there.

Yeah, I think you can go back to September and say this is another risk management adjustment to policy, that there are some signs of a soft labor market.

You're far away from what you're forecasting as your neutral rate.

Why not take another 25 basis points off of that?

It will help corporate America.

I'll get a lot of questions in the next few days.

Does 25 basis points actually do anything?

Let's remember, most of corporate America are small and middle market businesses.

Think of a $50 million EBITDA company.