Bob Michele

Well, I would argue right now it's already starting to have an impact because it was only a week ago that we came out of the FOMC meeting expecting a couple rate cuts, and you looked at the labor market.

That was their primary concern for good reason.

It seemed a bit soft.

Now you're paying a lot more to fill up your automobiles, and if you're a business, your input cost for energy has gone up.

I would say it's having an impact right about now.

I think the problem is at these levels, there's no obvious solution because even ourselves with $100 oil, we don't see recession.

We see growth slowing down a lot from where we had it, inflation going up a little bit.

Then they just have to wait and see what cracks first.

Does the labor market come under a lot of pressure and unemployment go up?

Or do they see energy prices pass through to finished goods and services and consumers still buying and demanding wage price spirals?

Well, there are also volatility indicators in the bond market, and they've actually been muted.

So it's been a surprisingly orderly sell-off, a little bit at a time, a lot of confidence that you have an administration looking for an off-ramp.

They'll find one.

They watch the markets.

They know the midterm elections are coming up soon.

They have to figure out how to extricate themselves from the Middle East.

And that's what the market's hanging its hat on.

It's strange, right, because this all started with us being told that 20% of oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

So you say, okay, $60 a barrel, let's go to $72 a barrel, maybe a little premium in there, you're up at $80.

not you're going to write to a hundred and hanging out there and expectations I saw one could be two hundred dollars I think that's a bit extreme I think by the time you get to 120 to 150 you'll create a tremendous amount up demand destruction I'm so it's bit puzzling that you're there