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Brad Gerstner

πŸ‘€ Speaker
2921 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

So 100,000 H100s is not apples for apples with the number of GB200s, Grace Blackwell 200s or GB300s.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

And so it's hard to talk about them.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

You're comparing apples and oranges when you're comparing these data centers.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

So a unifying metric of compare, right?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

right, is the power that goes in.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

Everything starts with the power.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

It's the constrained resource.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

So we can compare a gigawatt of power because it's, remember, it's power in and it's tokens out.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

And we can compare that over time and normalize across all these different chips.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

And it's not just these two companies.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

You got Tranium by Amazon, TPU by Google, Cerebris, Grok, et cetera.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

There are a lot of folks in this game.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

And so, again, I think what you saw this week in this flurry of announcements, right, is that you have the market leader that's basically captured 90 to 100% of the incremental demand for the biggest thing that the data center and the chip market has ever seen.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

And every other player is looking at what they have to do to have a shot to capture part of this wave.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

They're high risk, high reward bets.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

The other thing I would say is,

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

And again, shut me up and anybody can jump in if they want to.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

But I want to decompose.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

We're hearing these estimates of 100 gigawatts, four to five trillion of build out over the course of the next four years.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

If you look at that same chart I just showed you, that's not what Wall Street estimates are, right?