Brad Gerstner

It is entirely to do with the supply constraints that exist in data centers and specifically in power.

If they had infinite power, I think that their revenues would probably be even more parabolic.

And so all the breathlessness about either exceeding or underperforming a forecast, in my opinion, mean nothing.

I think the five-year view for those two companies is quite robust.

The thing that they really need is more compute and more power.

That's the first thing.

The second thing is while they need that, we have a very big problem, which is we unfortunately have very poor leadership at the head of most of these AI firms.

I think they are coming off as untrustworthy or too self-interested.

The political reaction now is starting to turn negative.

The community reaction is negative.

You have about nine gigawatts that are supposed to come online this year.

Almost 50% of it now is being protested.

More than likely, if history holds, most of that will get turned off.

So they will get even more supply constraint.

So that's the setup.

So what's the opportunity?

I think for Elon, if you look inside of how people try to nitpick the SpaceX valuation case, or let's not even, let's give them, sorry, let's be more generous.

When people try to paint the bear case or they tried to red team the valuation, the biggest element is the on-the-come value around the orbital data centers.

And by actually landing a bunch of terrestrial capacity, I think you start to blunt that because you can now start to say that even if the orbital data centers get delayed by a few months or a few quarters, even if the technological de-risking of it takes longer, he now has a structural core business that will effectively subsidize his ability to train Grok, which I think is a really important and underreported theme.

So you have all this infrastructure.