NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner
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I think that OpenAI is likely going to be the next multi-trillion dollar hyperscale company.
Jensen, great to be back, of course, with my partner, Clark Tang. You know, I can't believe it's been- Welcome to NVIDIA. Oh, and nice glasses. Those actually look really good on you. The problem is now everybody's going to want you to wear them all the time. They're going to say, where are the red glasses? I can vouch for that. So it's been over a year since we did the last pod. Yeah. Over 40% of your revenue today is inference. But inference is about ready because of chain of reasoning. Yeah. Right?
It's about ready- It's about to go up by a billion times. Right, by a million X, by a billion X. That's right, that's right. That's the part that most people haven't completely internalized. This is that industry we were talking about, but this is the industrial revolution.
Honestly, it's felt like you and I have had a continuation of the pod every day since then. In AI time, it's been about 100 years. I was re-watching the pod recently and the many things that we talked about that stood out. The one that was probably most profound for me was you pounding the table. that, you know, remember at the time, there was kind of a slump in terms of pre-training? And people were like, oh my God. The end of pre-training. Right, the end of pre-training. We're overbuilding. This is about a year and a half ago. And you said, inference isn't going to 100x, 1,000x. It's going to 1 billion x. Mm-hmm. Which brings us to where we are today. You announced this huge deal. We ought to start there.
I underestimated. Let me just go on record. I underestimated. We now have three scaling laws. We have pre-training scaling law. We have post-training scaling law. Post-training is basically like AI practicing.
Yes.
Practicing a skill until it gets it right. And so it tries a whole bunch of different ways. And in order to do that, you've got to do inference. So now training and inference are now integrated in reinforcement learning. Really complicated. And so that's called post-training. And then the third is inference. The old way of doing inference was one shot. But the new way of doing inference, which we appreciate, is thinking. So think before you answer. And so now you have three scaling laws. The longer you think, the better the quality answer you get. While you're thinking, you do research. You go check on some ground truth. And you learn some things. You think some more. You go learn some more. And then you generate an answer.
Don't just generate right off the bat. And so thinking, post-training, pre-training, we now have three scaling laws, not one.
You knew that last year, but is your level of confidence this year in the inferences going to 1 billion X and where that will take the levels of intelligence? Is it higher? Are you more confident this year than you were a year ago?
I'm more confident this year. And the reason for that is because look at the agentic systems now. And AI is no longer a language model. And AI is a system of language models. And they're all running concurrently, maybe using tools. Some of us are using tools. Some of us are doing research. And there's a whole bunch of stuff. And it's all multimodality. And look at all the video that's been generated. I mean, it's just crazy stuff.
It really brings us to kind of the seminal moment this week that everybody's talking about, the massive deal you announced a couple of days ago with OpenAI Stargate, where you're going to be a preferred partner, invest $100 billion in the company over a period of time. They're going to build 10 gigs. And if they used NVIDIA for those 10 gigs, that could be upwards of $400 billion in revenue to NVIDIA. So help us understand, just tell us a little bit about that partnership, what it means to you, right? And why that investment makes so much sense for NVIDIA.
So first of all, I'll answer that last question first. Okay, good. And then I'll come back and present it my way through. I think that OpenAI is likely going to be the next multi-trillion dollar hyperscale company.
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