Brad Gerstner

I've been forecasting companies for 25 years.

I know the numbers today.

Sam just told us $20 billion run rate end of the year for OpenAI.

Everybody who is forecasting three years out on these companies is totally guessing.

right?

Like, that's why I said time is on your side if you're betting over a five to 10 year horizon.

But if you think with precision that the company itself can forecast what's going to be happening in three years, I think you're misleading yourself, right?

So we'll see.

I think it's going to be a lot bigger, could be even bigger than those numbers.

But, you know, those forecasts are highly uncertain because the rate of growth has never been seen before.

I think you have to build in an expense structure that has the flexibility.

So if the numbers don't show up, that you have the ability to extend your, you know, your obligation.

So that's why I was saying, I don't think there's 1.4 trillion.

I think it's kind of the red herring out there.

I think it's kind of a fake made up number.

It's all of the obligations of all of the deals that have been announced.

And the truth of the matter is only a portion of that is born by open AI.

And I'm certain there's flexibility in all of those deals.

to match the expenses with the revenue side.

But listen, let's deal them in the opposite case, let's just say that all of these revenues start flatlining for Anthropic, for X, for Google, people aren't willing to pay for these products, then our CapEx build out for AI is going to be a lot slower.