Brad Olsen

But the domestic uncertainty still remains because, look, after a 30% rise, you are sort of seeing some big changes around the market.

And there is a complete surprise over where we actually head to next.

I think we are certainly seeing some big shifts.

One of the biggest from the Reserve Bank this week was actually the increase in just how much they thought they'd have to lift over the next few years.

Back in November, again, they were expecting they might have to take the official cash rate up to an average of sort of 2.6% in 2023-24.

They're now expecting they might have to take it to 3.4%.

So that very persistent level of inflation is very much starting to worry them.

Their job, remember, is to make sure that inflation tries to get to that 2%.

They're currently running at 5.9, expected to peak at 6.6.

They're failing their jobs, so they're having to have to pull out the big guns to try and get inflation back under control.

And that is going to require them to be a lot more brutal, a lot more forthright on the mortgage rate front.

So we are expecting that mortgage rates will go up.

So for those that have property at the moment, that have properties,

probably especially a larger mortgage who might have brought more recently, they are going to have to redo those sums, figure out, you know, how are they going to make their payments work?

How are they going to ensure that they can keep their house?

Is that still their best financial strategy?

Because the era of ultra low interest rates, especially in New Zealand, is ending and it's ending a lot faster than we expected.

It's also ending a lot faster than in other countries.

So we do have the pressure on here in New Zealand.

It is something that we certainly talk about a lot and that we hear a lot from New Zealanders about.