Brayden Dennis

And when you factor in retail investors that should be holding for 90, 120 days, right?

It'll vary from different platforms offering this IPO deal.

Well, now you're starting to lock in people to the unlocking period of insiders potentially selling into the market.

So I think there is definitely a risk where you can...

potentially see some of the retail investors that are in there and feel forced, like they have to hold the company because there's that 90 or 120 day lockup period that they may be on the hook.

And the reason I'm saying is that the big test will start

In August, when SpaceX reports its first public earnings result, that's when the big unlock will happen, where 20 to 30 percent of the shares will be unlocked.

And it really depends on the price of the shares.

It could be as high as 30 percent.

There is, I think, if it spends a certain amount of day above a certain price, there could be some more unlocking.

And the majority of the shares will be unlocked in the first six months following the IPO, with all of them being unlocked there.

including the ones that Elon owns a year after the IPO.

And you have to remember here, I think a lot of the pop that we're seeing is just, there's just an offer demand imbalance.

Right now, there's just not a lot in terms of offer, in terms of float that's available.

When you have less than 5% of the shares traded, you don't need that much demand to actually drive up the price of those shares.

And the question really is, once those lockup periods start opening up,

They start expiring.

You have probably the IPOs of OpenAI and Antropic around the same time period.

They're speculating that it could come in the fall, even as soon as September.

That could put a lot of pressure on the shares of SpaceX.