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Bret Taylor

👤 Person
552 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Bret Taylor: The AI Bubble and What Happens Now | How the Cost of Chips and Models Will Change in AI | Will Companies Build Their Own Software | Why Pre-Training is for Morons | Leaderships Lessons from Mark Zuckerberg

I think the breakthrough ideas sort of like, I don't know the story actually, but, you know, the Wright brothers invented the plane. Apparently there was another group of, you know, I actually don't know who it was, like came close as well. And they were the ones who hit it. I think there's also this dynamic where these ideas are sort of in the air, you know, between different researchers as well.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Bret Taylor: The AI Bubble and What Happens Now | How the Cost of Chips and Models Will Change in AI | Will Companies Build Their Own Software | Why Pre-Training is for Morons | Leaderships Lessons from Mark Zuckerberg

I think the breakthrough ideas sort of like, I don't know the story actually, but, you know, the Wright brothers invented the plane. Apparently there was another group of, you know, I actually don't know who it was, like came close as well. And they were the ones who hit it. I think there's also this dynamic where these ideas are sort of in the air, you know, between different researchers as well.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Bret Taylor: The AI Bubble and What Happens Now | How the Cost of Chips and Models Will Change in AI | Will Companies Build Their Own Software | Why Pre-Training is for Morons | Leaderships Lessons from Mark Zuckerberg

So when I made the comment earlier about skeptical of companies doing pre-training, it was really based on the premise that most companies should be applying AI to build solutions and most companies should have relatively modest training costs. And most of their costs should be correlated with inference, which should be correlated with revenue and usage of your product.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Bret Taylor: The AI Bubble and What Happens Now | How the Cost of Chips and Models Will Change in AI | Will Companies Build Their Own Software | Why Pre-Training is for Morons | Leaderships Lessons from Mark Zuckerberg

So when I made the comment earlier about skeptical of companies doing pre-training, it was really based on the premise that most companies should be applying AI to build solutions and most companies should have relatively modest training costs. And most of their costs should be correlated with inference, which should be correlated with revenue and usage of your product.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Bret Taylor: The AI Bubble and What Happens Now | How the Cost of Chips and Models Will Change in AI | Will Companies Build Their Own Software | Why Pre-Training is for Morons | Leaderships Lessons from Mark Zuckerberg

So when I made the comment earlier about skeptical of companies doing pre-training, it was really based on the premise that most companies should be applying AI to build solutions and most companies should have relatively modest training costs. And most of their costs should be correlated with inference, which should be correlated with revenue and usage of your product.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Bret Taylor: The AI Bubble and What Happens Now | How the Cost of Chips and Models Will Change in AI | Will Companies Build Their Own Software | Why Pre-Training is for Morons | Leaderships Lessons from Mark Zuckerberg

And I think that that's essentially because if you end up pre-training a very large model, you end up with such upfront capital requirements. You have to have a really valuable business model on the other side of that to justify that investment. So first...

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Bret Taylor: The AI Bubble and What Happens Now | How the Cost of Chips and Models Will Change in AI | Will Companies Build Their Own Software | Why Pre-Training is for Morons | Leaderships Lessons from Mark Zuckerberg

And I think that that's essentially because if you end up pre-training a very large model, you end up with such upfront capital requirements. You have to have a really valuable business model on the other side of that to justify that investment. So first...

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Bret Taylor: The AI Bubble and What Happens Now | How the Cost of Chips and Models Will Change in AI | Will Companies Build Their Own Software | Why Pre-Training is for Morons | Leaderships Lessons from Mark Zuckerberg

And I think that that's essentially because if you end up pre-training a very large model, you end up with such upfront capital requirements. You have to have a really valuable business model on the other side of that to justify that investment. So first...

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Bret Taylor: The AI Bubble and What Happens Now | How the Cost of Chips and Models Will Change in AI | Will Companies Build Their Own Software | Why Pre-Training is for Morons | Leaderships Lessons from Mark Zuckerberg

I think companies should really focus on how to find product market fit prior to taking on meaningful training costs that are fine-tuning, might be fine, certainly sort of pre-training models. On the inference side, I actually think the costs of AI are huge. going down really, really rapidly. I've seen a lot of people tracking sort of the cost of the GPT models over time.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Bret Taylor: The AI Bubble and What Happens Now | How the Cost of Chips and Models Will Change in AI | Will Companies Build Their Own Software | Why Pre-Training is for Morons | Leaderships Lessons from Mark Zuckerberg

I think companies should really focus on how to find product market fit prior to taking on meaningful training costs that are fine-tuning, might be fine, certainly sort of pre-training models. On the inference side, I actually think the costs of AI are huge. going down really, really rapidly. I've seen a lot of people tracking sort of the cost of the GPT models over time.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Bret Taylor: The AI Bubble and What Happens Now | How the Cost of Chips and Models Will Change in AI | Will Companies Build Their Own Software | Why Pre-Training is for Morons | Leaderships Lessons from Mark Zuckerberg

I think companies should really focus on how to find product market fit prior to taking on meaningful training costs that are fine-tuning, might be fine, certainly sort of pre-training models. On the inference side, I actually think the costs of AI are huge. going down really, really rapidly. I've seen a lot of people tracking sort of the cost of the GPT models over time.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Bret Taylor: The AI Bubble and What Happens Now | How the Cost of Chips and Models Will Change in AI | Will Companies Build Their Own Software | Why Pre-Training is for Morons | Leaderships Lessons from Mark Zuckerberg

And what's remarkable about the cost going down is the quality is also going up. So it reminds me, you joked about when you were born, but what Well, around the time you were born, every time I got a new computer in my house, it was twice as cheap and twice as good. So I think on the inference side, I think that margins will probably improve for a lot of these use cases.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Bret Taylor: The AI Bubble and What Happens Now | How the Cost of Chips and Models Will Change in AI | Will Companies Build Their Own Software | Why Pre-Training is for Morons | Leaderships Lessons from Mark Zuckerberg

And what's remarkable about the cost going down is the quality is also going up. So it reminds me, you joked about when you were born, but what Well, around the time you were born, every time I got a new computer in my house, it was twice as cheap and twice as good. So I think on the inference side, I think that margins will probably improve for a lot of these use cases.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Bret Taylor: The AI Bubble and What Happens Now | How the Cost of Chips and Models Will Change in AI | Will Companies Build Their Own Software | Why Pre-Training is for Morons | Leaderships Lessons from Mark Zuckerberg

And what's remarkable about the cost going down is the quality is also going up. So it reminds me, you joked about when you were born, but what Well, around the time you were born, every time I got a new computer in my house, it was twice as cheap and twice as good. So I think on the inference side, I think that margins will probably improve for a lot of these use cases.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Bret Taylor: The AI Bubble and What Happens Now | How the Cost of Chips and Models Will Change in AI | Will Companies Build Their Own Software | Why Pre-Training is for Morons | Leaderships Lessons from Mark Zuckerberg

There's a lot of interesting technology trends like distillation, taking a large parameter count model and making a smaller parameter count model from it that has similar levels of quality. And essentially, what that means is you're sort of transferring some of the well, you trained a very large model, the you can run inference on something that's much smaller, cheaper and faster.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Bret Taylor: The AI Bubble and What Happens Now | How the Cost of Chips and Models Will Change in AI | Will Companies Build Their Own Software | Why Pre-Training is for Morons | Leaderships Lessons from Mark Zuckerberg

There's a lot of interesting technology trends like distillation, taking a large parameter count model and making a smaller parameter count model from it that has similar levels of quality. And essentially, what that means is you're sort of transferring some of the well, you trained a very large model, the you can run inference on something that's much smaller, cheaper and faster.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Bret Taylor: The AI Bubble and What Happens Now | How the Cost of Chips and Models Will Change in AI | Will Companies Build Their Own Software | Why Pre-Training is for Morons | Leaderships Lessons from Mark Zuckerberg

There's a lot of interesting technology trends like distillation, taking a large parameter count model and making a smaller parameter count model from it that has similar levels of quality. And essentially, what that means is you're sort of transferring some of the well, you trained a very large model, the you can run inference on something that's much smaller, cheaper and faster.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Bret Taylor: The AI Bubble and What Happens Now | How the Cost of Chips and Models Will Change in AI | Will Companies Build Their Own Software | Why Pre-Training is for Morons | Leaderships Lessons from Mark Zuckerberg

And then there's obviously a bunch of improvements on the hardware side as well. And I'm incredibly optimistic that just the cost of running AI will could probably track something like Moore's law like Moore's law. I don't think it's a law. I just think it's a trend. And I think that's a really exciting thing for all companies.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Bret Taylor: The AI Bubble and What Happens Now | How the Cost of Chips and Models Will Change in AI | Will Companies Build Their Own Software | Why Pre-Training is for Morons | Leaderships Lessons from Mark Zuckerberg

And then there's obviously a bunch of improvements on the hardware side as well. And I'm incredibly optimistic that just the cost of running AI will could probably track something like Moore's law like Moore's law. I don't think it's a law. I just think it's a trend. And I think that's a really exciting thing for all companies.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Bret Taylor: The AI Bubble and What Happens Now | How the Cost of Chips and Models Will Change in AI | Will Companies Build Their Own Software | Why Pre-Training is for Morons | Leaderships Lessons from Mark Zuckerberg

And then there's obviously a bunch of improvements on the hardware side as well. And I'm incredibly optimistic that just the cost of running AI will could probably track something like Moore's law like Moore's law. I don't think it's a law. I just think it's a trend. And I think that's a really exciting thing for all companies.