Brian Klaas

And so in losing those little tiny numbers after the third decimal place, what Lorenz realized was that that was where the weather was diverging. And this is the origin story of a realm of science called chaos theory, where you realize that these tiny changes over time can have profound consequences.

And so in losing those little tiny numbers after the third decimal place, what Lorenz realized was that that was where the weather was diverging. And this is the origin story of a realm of science called chaos theory, where you realize that these tiny changes over time can have profound consequences.

And it's, by the way, the reason why today, even with the best supercomputers, we cannot forecast the weather reliably beyond seven to 10 days. And that's because we can't measure everything absolutely perfectly. There's always going to be these little variations. And that's the difference between a forecast being correct two weeks down the road and being wildly off.

And it's, by the way, the reason why today, even with the best supercomputers, we cannot forecast the weather reliably beyond seven to 10 days. And that's because we can't measure everything absolutely perfectly. There's always going to be these little variations. And that's the difference between a forecast being correct two weeks down the road and being wildly off.

And it's, by the way, the reason why today, even with the best supercomputers, we cannot forecast the weather reliably beyond seven to 10 days. And that's because we can't measure everything absolutely perfectly. There's always going to be these little variations. And that's the difference between a forecast being correct two weeks down the road and being wildly off.

So imagine that you are a sort of pre-modern hunter-gatherer, and you see this little rustling in the grass, or you hear this rustling in the grass. Now, your brain could either decide it's probably nothing and just carry on with your day, or your brain could say, okay, hold on, this might be a saber-toothed tiger, this might be a predator.

So imagine that you are a sort of pre-modern hunter-gatherer, and you see this little rustling in the grass, or you hear this rustling in the grass. Now, your brain could either decide it's probably nothing and just carry on with your day, or your brain could say, okay, hold on, this might be a saber-toothed tiger, this might be a predator.

So imagine that you are a sort of pre-modern hunter-gatherer, and you see this little rustling in the grass, or you hear this rustling in the grass. Now, your brain could either decide it's probably nothing and just carry on with your day, or your brain could say, okay, hold on, this might be a saber-toothed tiger, this might be a predator.

Now, if you happen to make a mistake and you think it is a saber tooth tiger when it's not, you will survive and maybe waste a little bit of energy by running away. But if you make the other kind of mistake, if you think it's nothing and it turns out to be a saber tooth tiger, you will die. So our brains have evolved to overemphasize patterns.

Now, if you happen to make a mistake and you think it is a saber tooth tiger when it's not, you will survive and maybe waste a little bit of energy by running away. But if you make the other kind of mistake, if you think it's nothing and it turns out to be a saber tooth tiger, you will die. So our brains have evolved to overemphasize patterns.

Now, if you happen to make a mistake and you think it is a saber tooth tiger when it's not, you will survive and maybe waste a little bit of energy by running away. But if you make the other kind of mistake, if you think it's nothing and it turns out to be a saber tooth tiger, you will die. So our brains have evolved to overemphasize patterns.

And this helps us survive because you're more attuned to what might be a threat. But it also means that we see patterns where they don't necessarily exist. And this creates a mismatch with modern life where we make mistakes because we believe things to be true that simply are uncorrelated clusters of data that we sort of connect the dots between.

And this helps us survive because you're more attuned to what might be a threat. But it also means that we see patterns where they don't necessarily exist. And this creates a mismatch with modern life where we make mistakes because we believe things to be true that simply are uncorrelated clusters of data that we sort of connect the dots between.

And this helps us survive because you're more attuned to what might be a threat. But it also means that we see patterns where they don't necessarily exist. And this creates a mismatch with modern life where we make mistakes because we believe things to be true that simply are uncorrelated clusters of data that we sort of connect the dots between.

Yeah, so I find this both from sort of an observational point of view and also from participating in this world of forecasting and punditry. On the observational side, I think when you look at something like the stock market, 8 billion interacting humans producing a global economy, and then some analysts will say, well, stocks are reacting today to this one piece of news. And you're like, really?

Yeah, so I find this both from sort of an observational point of view and also from participating in this world of forecasting and punditry. On the observational side, I think when you look at something like the stock market, 8 billion interacting humans producing a global economy, and then some analysts will say, well, stocks are reacting today to this one piece of news. And you're like, really?

Yeah, so I find this both from sort of an observational point of view and also from participating in this world of forecasting and punditry. On the observational side, I think when you look at something like the stock market, 8 billion interacting humans producing a global economy, and then some analysts will say, well, stocks are reacting today to this one piece of news. And you're like, really?

Out of 8 billion people? This one thing is what's causing the market to move in this exact way. And of course, if it had moved the other way, you would have just come up with an explanation that also fits that.

Out of 8 billion people? This one thing is what's causing the market to move in this exact way. And of course, if it had moved the other way, you would have just come up with an explanation that also fits that.

Out of 8 billion people? This one thing is what's causing the market to move in this exact way. And of course, if it had moved the other way, you would have just come up with an explanation that also fits that.