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Brian O’Malley

👤 Speaker
512 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

How I Invest with David Weisburd
E291: Incentives, Not Intuition: How VC Really Works

Yeah, it's budgeting, it's bandwidth, and it's also political capital.

How I Invest with David Weisburd
E291: Incentives, Not Intuition: How VC Really Works

All three of those add up.

How I Invest with David Weisburd
E291: Incentives, Not Intuition: How VC Really Works

And then one other thing I want to say earlier about your point about just all this complexity, you also have on the backdrop a relatively imperfect mark-to-market process for how to actually value these end assets.

How I Invest with David Weisburd
E291: Incentives, Not Intuition: How VC Really Works

So not only do you have, you know, 10 plus years waiting for liquidity in a lot of cases,

How I Invest with David Weisburd
E291: Incentives, Not Intuition: How VC Really Works

the value of some of these underlying companies is somewhat ambiguous.

How I Invest with David Weisburd
E291: Incentives, Not Intuition: How VC Really Works

At the end of the day, you'll take the write-up if one person agreed to a valuation, but that might not have actually been the market clearing price if this was ultimately a public company.

How I Invest with David Weisburd
E291: Incentives, Not Intuition: How VC Really Works

On the flip side, I have companies that have been profitable for years.

How I Invest with David Weisburd
E291: Incentives, Not Intuition: How VC Really Works

They're now doing almost $200 million in revenue, but they're still marked at the last round was at $150 million or something like that.

How I Invest with David Weisburd
E291: Incentives, Not Intuition: How VC Really Works

How one firm versus another actually values their companies and the incentives behind that, that is another tricky element that the savviest LPs understand and really dig under the covers to understand the intrinsic value of these portfolios as opposed to just the reported value of these portfolios.

How I Invest with David Weisburd
E291: Incentives, Not Intuition: How VC Really Works

There's incentive on marking as well.

How I Invest with David Weisburd
E291: Incentives, Not Intuition: How VC Really Works

I had Professor Steve Kaplan, University of Chicago researcher say,

How I Invest with David Weisburd
E291: Incentives, Not Intuition: How VC Really Works

arguably the best researcher in the space.

How I Invest with David Weisburd
E291: Incentives, Not Intuition: How VC Really Works

And he mentioned that one of his studies looked at how are funds marking their positions and those with more vintages, the more established managers were actually slightly under marking their TVPI and emerging managers were over marking.

How I Invest with David Weisburd
E291: Incentives, Not Intuition: How VC Really Works

Why?

How I Invest with David Weisburd
E291: Incentives, Not Intuition: How VC Really Works

Because if you're on your fund six, fund seven, the way that you lose an LP's check is actually to lose credibility or confidence, right?

How I Invest with David Weisburd
E291: Incentives, Not Intuition: How VC Really Works

by default, LPs have incentive to re-opt, which is another incentive thing we won't go into.

How I Invest with David Weisburd
E291: Incentives, Not Intuition: How VC Really Works

But when you're an emerging manager, you're trying to kind of get new LPs, you need to show top, top quartile, ideally top decile performance.

How I Invest with David Weisburd
E291: Incentives, Not Intuition: How VC Really Works

Their incentive, again, is to overmark and

How I Invest with David Weisburd
E291: Incentives, Not Intuition: How VC Really Works

Some of these biases are unconscious and some of them are conscious and it's just brutal market dynamics lead to kind of very interesting behaviors to say the least.

How I Invest with David Weisburd
E291: Incentives, Not Intuition: How VC Really Works

Definitely.