Brian Stewart

Thanks. Big shoes to fill, but I'm ready.

Thanks. Big shoes to fill, but I'm ready.

Thanks. Big shoes to fill, but I'm ready.

So the obvious big news in terms of Fed prediction that happened this week was the CPI report, which came in very hot. Pretty much took a rate cut off the table for the March meeting and pushed it back quite a ways. There's now an 86% chance of no change in May. So we're looking in the kind of June, July, September timeframe for a cut.

So the obvious big news in terms of Fed prediction that happened this week was the CPI report, which came in very hot. Pretty much took a rate cut off the table for the March meeting and pushed it back quite a ways. There's now an 86% chance of no change in May. So we're looking in the kind of June, July, September timeframe for a cut.

So the obvious big news in terms of Fed prediction that happened this week was the CPI report, which came in very hot. Pretty much took a rate cut off the table for the March meeting and pushed it back quite a ways. There's now an 86% chance of no change in May. So we're looking in the kind of June, July, September timeframe for a cut.

Another thing to look at is the chance of no cut at all this year. has gone up dramatically. It's now sitting at about 23%. This is based on market trading. It was 11% a week ago, so more than doubled in the course of the week. And the major catalyst for that is a CPI report. So the market's getting used to the idea of higher for longer.

Another thing to look at is the chance of no cut at all this year. has gone up dramatically. It's now sitting at about 23%. This is based on market trading. It was 11% a week ago, so more than doubled in the course of the week. And the major catalyst for that is a CPI report. So the market's getting used to the idea of higher for longer.

Another thing to look at is the chance of no cut at all this year. has gone up dramatically. It's now sitting at about 23%. This is based on market trading. It was 11% a week ago, so more than doubled in the course of the week. And the major catalyst for that is a CPI report. So the market's getting used to the idea of higher for longer.

that we might have these interest rates even through the rest of 2025. Though by and large, stocks took it in stride. There was a sizable dip as the news came out at the opening of trading and then the recovery. And as we said on Thursday, we're now higher than we were before the news came out. So by and large, it's been kind of shrugged off.

that we might have these interest rates even through the rest of 2025. Though by and large, stocks took it in stride. There was a sizable dip as the news came out at the opening of trading and then the recovery. And as we said on Thursday, we're now higher than we were before the news came out. So by and large, it's been kind of shrugged off.

that we might have these interest rates even through the rest of 2025. Though by and large, stocks took it in stride. There was a sizable dip as the news came out at the opening of trading and then the recovery. And as we said on Thursday, we're now higher than we were before the news came out. So by and large, it's been kind of shrugged off.

But I think if you're an investor, you're kind of looking longer term. impact on consumer impact, on businesses' ability to borrow, things like that. It is definitely something to keep an eye on.

But I think if you're an investor, you're kind of looking longer term. impact on consumer impact, on businesses' ability to borrow, things like that. It is definitely something to keep an eye on.

But I think if you're an investor, you're kind of looking longer term. impact on consumer impact, on businesses' ability to borrow, things like that. It is definitely something to keep an eye on.

The impact on individual sectors, I would look to the traditionally interest rate sensitive sectors. So REITs is a good example of a sector that moves in accordance to how interest rates are looking. The home builders and other housing stocks are another indication. If it's becomes more difficult for those companies to book revenue and therefore can affect their bottom line.

The impact on individual sectors, I would look to the traditionally interest rate sensitive sectors. So REITs is a good example of a sector that moves in accordance to how interest rates are looking. The home builders and other housing stocks are another indication. If it's becomes more difficult for those companies to book revenue and therefore can affect their bottom line.

The impact on individual sectors, I would look to the traditionally interest rate sensitive sectors. So REITs is a good example of a sector that moves in accordance to how interest rates are looking. The home builders and other housing stocks are another indication. If it's becomes more difficult for those companies to book revenue and therefore can affect their bottom line.

So I would keep an eye on those things. I would keep an eye on the treasury market as well. There's kind of the feeling that the treasury traders are the smartest traders on the financial markets. And so you can kind of get a pretty good idea of what the street thinks generally of the prospects for inflation and other aspects based on the movement. in treasuries.

So I would keep an eye on those things. I would keep an eye on the treasury market as well. There's kind of the feeling that the treasury traders are the smartest traders on the financial markets. And so you can kind of get a pretty good idea of what the street thinks generally of the prospects for inflation and other aspects based on the movement. in treasuries.