Brian Stewart
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So I would keep an eye on those things. I would keep an eye on the treasury market as well. There's kind of the feeling that the treasury traders are the smartest traders on the financial markets. And so you can kind of get a pretty good idea of what the street thinks generally of the prospects for inflation and other aspects based on the movement. in treasuries.
And then secondarily, I think it's interesting, another news point this week was Powell appearing in a semiannual testimony on Capitol Hill. Those conversations didn't have a lot to do with inflation. I mean, they had sort of the normal amount, but there was also a lot of conversation just about sort of the intersection of the Fed and the new administration.
And then secondarily, I think it's interesting, another news point this week was Powell appearing in a semiannual testimony on Capitol Hill. Those conversations didn't have a lot to do with inflation. I mean, they had sort of the normal amount, but there was also a lot of conversation just about sort of the intersection of the Fed and the new administration.
And then secondarily, I think it's interesting, another news point this week was Powell appearing in a semiannual testimony on Capitol Hill. Those conversations didn't have a lot to do with inflation. I mean, they had sort of the normal amount, but there was also a lot of conversation just about sort of the intersection of the Fed and the new administration.
The Trump administration has been much more kind of aggressive in stating its opinions about interest rates, specifically that they should be lower. And I think that it'll be an interesting kind of dance to watch the machinations between a supposedly independent Fed and the White House.
The Trump administration has been much more kind of aggressive in stating its opinions about interest rates, specifically that they should be lower. And I think that it'll be an interesting kind of dance to watch the machinations between a supposedly independent Fed and the White House.
The Trump administration has been much more kind of aggressive in stating its opinions about interest rates, specifically that they should be lower. And I think that it'll be an interesting kind of dance to watch the machinations between a supposedly independent Fed and the White House.
You had also asked about tariffs, and I think that's something that's making it much murkier when you look into sort of the crystal ball of inflation. You have sort of the normal pressures that the Fed is dealing with in terms of the economic pressure. causes of inflation.
You had also asked about tariffs, and I think that's something that's making it much murkier when you look into sort of the crystal ball of inflation. You have sort of the normal pressures that the Fed is dealing with in terms of the economic pressure. causes of inflation.
You had also asked about tariffs, and I think that's something that's making it much murkier when you look into sort of the crystal ball of inflation. You have sort of the normal pressures that the Fed is dealing with in terms of the economic pressure. causes of inflation.
And then you have this sort of political possibility out there, the extent to which tariffs are going to push prices higher for consumers. And obviously, that's out of the Fed's hands. There's nothing they can't raise interest rates to a point where tariffs go away.
And then you have this sort of political possibility out there, the extent to which tariffs are going to push prices higher for consumers. And obviously, that's out of the Fed's hands. There's nothing they can't raise interest rates to a point where tariffs go away.
And then you have this sort of political possibility out there, the extent to which tariffs are going to push prices higher for consumers. And obviously, that's out of the Fed's hands. There's nothing they can't raise interest rates to a point where tariffs go away.
It's going to be interesting how those play into the Fed's decision making, whether or not they'll kind of ignore it and try and just kind of look at the underlying inflationary pressures, or if, as the White House would like them to do, kind of counteract tariffs by keeping inflation under control. Gold has been rallying to new highs. recently driven by fear of inflation.
It's going to be interesting how those play into the Fed's decision making, whether or not they'll kind of ignore it and try and just kind of look at the underlying inflationary pressures, or if, as the White House would like them to do, kind of counteract tariffs by keeping inflation under control. Gold has been rallying to new highs. recently driven by fear of inflation.
It's going to be interesting how those play into the Fed's decision making, whether or not they'll kind of ignore it and try and just kind of look at the underlying inflationary pressures, or if, as the White House would like them to do, kind of counteract tariffs by keeping inflation under control. Gold has been rallying to new highs. recently driven by fear of inflation.
It's generally seen as an inflation hedge. So I think the more that worry pops up, the more you can see people taking positions in gold as kind of a hedge for that. Looking at the bond market, looking at the gold market, I think those will give you indications about where inflation, where the impression is that inflation will be headed.
It's generally seen as an inflation hedge. So I think the more that worry pops up, the more you can see people taking positions in gold as kind of a hedge for that. Looking at the bond market, looking at the gold market, I think those will give you indications about where inflation, where the impression is that inflation will be headed.
It's generally seen as an inflation hedge. So I think the more that worry pops up, the more you can see people taking positions in gold as kind of a hedge for that. Looking at the bond market, looking at the gold market, I think those will give you indications about where inflation, where the impression is that inflation will be headed.
Yeah, we're through the jobs data and this was the most recent inflation data. So we're in a bit of a quiet period in terms of actual information. So it won't be into March that we're going to get the big data points that can kind of move expectations. So I think that people should keep an eye on Fed commentary as it bubbles up in various Fed commentators speaking over the next week or so.