Brian Stewart

But if you have an economy that's starting to show some cracks, it puts the Fed in a real bind because if it cuts rates to protect the economy, then that could unleash the inflation goblin. But if you fight inflation, you might undermine any attempt to jumpstart the economy. So you end up in a situation where the Fed is sort of stuck between a rock and a hard place.

But if you have an economy that's starting to show some cracks, it puts the Fed in a real bind because if it cuts rates to protect the economy, then that could unleash the inflation goblin. But if you fight inflation, you might undermine any attempt to jumpstart the economy. So you end up in a situation where the Fed is sort of stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Troublesome data point that affected the markets this week is the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 98.3 in February. This was down from a little over 105 in January. That's the biggest monthly fall since August of 2021. Anytime you're saying biggest whatever since the COVID shutdowns, you're probably in sort of frightening territory. So one of the...

Troublesome data point that affected the markets this week is the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 98.3 in February. This was down from a little over 105 in January. That's the biggest monthly fall since August of 2021. Anytime you're saying biggest whatever since the COVID shutdowns, you're probably in sort of frightening territory. So one of the...

Troublesome data point that affected the markets this week is the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 98.3 in February. This was down from a little over 105 in January. That's the biggest monthly fall since August of 2021. Anytime you're saying biggest whatever since the COVID shutdowns, you're probably in sort of frightening territory. So one of the...

Sub-indexes in there is the expectation index dropped 9.3 points to 72.9. That's below the 80 mark. That's usually seen as a recession red flag. So you see consumers in general are just starting to look around and see high inflation, see an economy that doesn't seem to be... be as solid as it once was, and they're starting to get worried.

Sub-indexes in there is the expectation index dropped 9.3 points to 72.9. That's below the 80 mark. That's usually seen as a recession red flag. So you see consumers in general are just starting to look around and see high inflation, see an economy that doesn't seem to be... be as solid as it once was, and they're starting to get worried.

Sub-indexes in there is the expectation index dropped 9.3 points to 72.9. That's below the 80 mark. That's usually seen as a recession red flag. So you see consumers in general are just starting to look around and see high inflation, see an economy that doesn't seem to be... be as solid as it once was, and they're starting to get worried.

Next week, there's a lot of retailers on the earnings docket. So in terms of getting a vibe about what consumers are thinking, I think those earnings reports are going to be important. One of the key ones is Costco. They're coming out Thursday. The company is recently off a 52-week high. It's gotten a lot of run in the fact that it's a low-price company. competitor.

Next week, there's a lot of retailers on the earnings docket. So in terms of getting a vibe about what consumers are thinking, I think those earnings reports are going to be important. One of the key ones is Costco. They're coming out Thursday. The company is recently off a 52-week high. It's gotten a lot of run in the fact that it's a low-price company. competitor.

Next week, there's a lot of retailers on the earnings docket. So in terms of getting a vibe about what consumers are thinking, I think those earnings reports are going to be important. One of the key ones is Costco. They're coming out Thursday. The company is recently off a 52-week high. It's gotten a lot of run in the fact that it's a low-price company. competitor.

And so it brings in a lot of people who are worried about inflation and looking to find deals. Those are your Costco customers. But with the increases come valuation concerns. So there's worries of whether Costco can keep up the momentum that it's had. And then elsewhere, you have a lot of department stores like Macy's and Nordstrom's and then other clothing retailers like like Gap are reporting.

And so it brings in a lot of people who are worried about inflation and looking to find deals. Those are your Costco customers. But with the increases come valuation concerns. So there's worries of whether Costco can keep up the momentum that it's had. And then elsewhere, you have a lot of department stores like Macy's and Nordstrom's and then other clothing retailers like like Gap are reporting.

And so it brings in a lot of people who are worried about inflation and looking to find deals. Those are your Costco customers. But with the increases come valuation concerns. So there's worries of whether Costco can keep up the momentum that it's had. And then elsewhere, you have a lot of department stores like Macy's and Nordstrom's and then other clothing retailers like like Gap are reporting.

So like I said, to get an idea of the spending habits of the general consumer, I think taking those reports sort of in aggregate would be a good data source.

So like I said, to get an idea of the spending habits of the general consumer, I think taking those reports sort of in aggregate would be a good data source.

So like I said, to get an idea of the spending habits of the general consumer, I think taking those reports sort of in aggregate would be a good data source.

Well, the biggest preliminary to the waiver reports that's coming that we had was the Walmart earnings, which sent the stock down a little bit. There was just sort of worries that it couldn't keep up the momentum it had. Walmart's in sort of a special case because it has the benefit of size plus... the low price kind of business plan kind of works well in an inflationary environment.

Well, the biggest preliminary to the waiver reports that's coming that we had was the Walmart earnings, which sent the stock down a little bit. There was just sort of worries that it couldn't keep up the momentum it had. Walmart's in sort of a special case because it has the benefit of size plus... the low price kind of business plan kind of works well in an inflationary environment.

Well, the biggest preliminary to the waiver reports that's coming that we had was the Walmart earnings, which sent the stock down a little bit. There was just sort of worries that it couldn't keep up the momentum it had. Walmart's in sort of a special case because it has the benefit of size plus... the low price kind of business plan kind of works well in an inflationary environment.